383 FXUS61 KBGM 041929 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 229 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather today under weak high pressure with increasing clouds will be replaced by scattered light rain showers late tonight and on Tuesday as a cold front passes through. Wednesday will be colder and mainly dry, then become much colder by the end of the week with chances for snow showers. High temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 1030 am update...No major changes to the near term forecast with this update. Cloud cover is increasing across the region this morning and will continue to do so this afternoon. Did increase sky cover slightly, but temperatures should still reach the upper 40s to lower 50s by afternoon. A breezy south wind develops, between 10-20 mph. Light rain showers are still on track to develop over the area after midnight, and continue on and off into Tuesday. Low temperatures tonight hold in the upper 30s to lower 40s. 304 am update... Main concerns in the near term are focused on the dry/quiet weather today with a front approaching tonight and sweeping through the region Tuesday with scattered rain showers. Fairly quiet weather today with high pressure over the mid Atlantic region this morning shifting to the northeast later today as the next system moves in from the west. As the high moves to the east...the next low pressure system will rotate e/ne through the Great Lakes tonight with a trailing cold front from the surface low in srn Quebec dragging east through NY during the day Tuesday. A relatively tight sfc pres gradient will form over the region today and allow for gusty south winds around 15 to 25 mph. The front on Tuesday will have weak upper level support and limited moisture associated with it. There is a fairly robust...40-50 kt...LLJ that will set up and enhance some of the low/mid level forcing, and help force a band of rain showers that will roll across mainly central NY during the day Tuesday. Cannot rule out a few rain showers in ne PA during this time, but the most favorable area will be to the north. Could see around a quarter of an inch of rain. Temperatures today will be on the cooler side with highs only in the mid to upper 40s. Increased cloud cover tonight will allow for enough insolation to keep lows from only dropping into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Weak WAA ahead of the front on Tuesday will allow temperatures to inch up into the upper 40s and lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A chilly period as Canadian high pressure sits under a broad long wave trough. Wednesday will feature a breezy westerly flow with below normal temperatures. WSW flow will not favor any lake effect snow or rain showers but the day will feature only partial sun if at all. Cold front begins to slide into the area early Thursday with light rain or snow showers possible, especially over western NY as the lakes and an upper wave help to produce precipitation. Front stalls somewhere over central NY or NEPA later Thursday setting the stage for our first major winter event of the season. Deep southwest flow develops along the front and moisture streams into the area. Light rain or snow will break out late in the day Thursday with more important precipitation falling in the the long term. See the following discussion below for details on that. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 255 PM UPDATE... Looking more and more like a significant, season opening winter event is on tap for Thursday night into Friday. 12Z Euro is persistent and consistent with a band of snow developing along and just north of the stalled front Thursday night as a rapidly deepening low develops along the east coast. GFS is slowing coming on board with this idea although it remains weaker with the features and dropping less precipitation. Many details to be worked out but there is enough confidence now to predict accumulating snow across much of the forecast area, with a band of heavier snow possible somewhere from north central PA into the southern tier and Catskills of NY. Have updated the grids to reflect this concern and will also update the GHWO and text Hazardous Outlook. Also trended colder on the remainder of the long term as cold air charges in behind the developing coastal storm and into the weekend. Previous discussion continues below. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with Thursday's forecast. The Euro and CMC continue to persist in their development of a surface low across the mid-Atlantic, deepening as it moves offshore and finally towards the Canadian Maritimes. There is certainly quite a bit of synoptic support for development with a strong upper-level jet situated over the area, if these solutions are to be believed. This scenario would yield better chances for snowfall across our whole area Thursday night with ample moisture and forcing for development. The GFS, meanwhile, fails to develop that same system, and instead tracks a cold front through the region Thursday night - but continues to indicate a more southward trend in precipitation chances. Continue to go with a more middle of the road approach to the forecast, keeping in chances for rain and snow showers across our whole area, but still leaning towards comparatively better chances across our southern zones. Turning much colder behind the front as temperatures generally in the 40s Thursday bottom out in the 20s Thursday night. Snow showers linger into Friday behind the exiting system, tapering off to a fairly decent-looking lake effect shower scenario even across the Finger Lakes with healthy NW flow across the region for most of Friday. High pressure builds in Friday evening. This will allow for dry conditions through Saturday, but then another cold front looking to pass through will bring our next chances for rain/snow Sunday. Otherwise: cold next weekend. Temperatures peak only in the 30s Friday and Saturday, turning comparatively warmer with highs in the 40s Sunday. Lows in the 20s Friday and Saturday night, and in the 30s Sunday night. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure moving off the coast this will continue to influence much of the region with VFR conditions and mid/high level clouds increasing from west to east as the next weak system approaches from the west. Cloud bases generally between 5-12kft agl through this evening before becoming low-end VFR after 06Z from KRME, KSYR, KITH to KELM. Will also see rain showers move in from the west/nw after 06Z...but probably will not make it to KBGM and KAVP until after 15-18Z Tuesday. Ceilings should remain VFR through much of the period. MVFR CIGS will be possible, advancing from NW to SE after about 15z Tuesday morning. Southerly winds are increasing today, with gusts as high as 25 knots by the afternoon. Winds subside around or just after 00Z Tuesday with a 40-50kt LLJ moving in and producing a period LLWS from approximately 00-08z. Outlook... Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night...Chance of showers and associated restrictions with rain showers...mixing with snow later at night. Wednesday Wednesday night...Mainly VFR; perhaps a few showers late at night. Thursday through Friday...Possible rain changing to snow or snow showers. Restrictions possible. Saturday...Mainly VFR expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT/MJM NEAR TERM...BJT/MJM SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM/HLC AVIATION...BJT/MPK/MJM