380 FXUS63 KFGF 041557 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 957 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 953 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 Cold front pushing through the area this morning has brought a brief burst of snowfall and then gusty winds to portions of the northern valley including Grand Forks. Will see those conditions push down the valley through the rest of the morning into early afternoon with snowfall causing visibility to be reduced under a mile at times and gusts to 35mph. Slippery road conditions are also possible with both MN and ND DOTs reporting travel impacts. UPDATE Issued at 658 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 Several areas of light snow or flurries continue to move through the area with some embedded shortwaves, but any accumulation is expected to be light. Tweaked POPs a bit for current trends. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 327 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 Snow chances and amounts continue to be the main challenges for the period. Large upper trough continues over the north central CONUS with yet another reinforcing shortwave digging down from Canada. Northwest winds and cold air advection will be ongoing throughout today. The cold air advection along with clouds should keep temps in the upper 20s to low 30s in the north, with mid 30s in the south where the reinforcing cold air surge arrives later. The global models as well as CAMs have some light precip coming down with the shortwave. A couple of solutions such as the HRRR seem to indicate some sort of banding. However, not seeing much classic frontogenetical forcing at this point so will have to keep an eye out for any odd boundaries like what brought last night's snow. For now have amounts under 1 inch. Surface high pressure will build across the region tonight, and with the shortwave exiting to the east, think there could be some clearing overnight. Have temps approaching 10 to even single digits in our usual cold spots of Langdon area and around Fosston, with teens elsewhere. Tuesday looks fairly quiet and cold with highs in the 20s to low 30s as northwest flow continues and the surface high moves east. There will be a shortwave approaching late in the day that will bring some increasing chances of snow Tuesday afternoon, mainly in the west. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 327 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 The main story for the extended forecast is the prolonged period of below-normal temperatures beginning mid week and lasting into at least early next week. A few chances for light snow are also anticipated through the week, but no winter weather impacts are expected. Tuesday night through Wednesday... The established upper level northwesterly flow regime is expected to continue through the extended period. Early morning water vapor imagery exemplifies this pattern with broad troughing centered around a Hudson Bay low and a high amplitude ridge over the northeast Pacific. A shortwave trough observed rounding the crest of the ridge over the Yukon/Northwest Territories region is expected to propagate southeastward into the northern Plains late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, bringing with it a reinforcing cold arctic airmass. Snow showers will be possible as an associated cold front pushes southward through the region. There are some indications in deterministic guidance that snow banding is possible across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota as the wave moves through. However, fairly high spread in ensemble guidance regarding precipitation placement prevents higher confidence in the snowfall amount/timing forecast at this time. Regardless, precipitable water values will be on the low side, suggesting that corresponding snowfall amounts will also be on the low side for most locations. Because of this, no major winter weather impacts are expected. Thursday through Friday... Surface high pressure is expected to become established over the northern Plains for the late work week period with a cool arctic airmass over the region. Daytime highs will linger in the low 30s with overnight lows dropping into the teens, and possibly single digits for locations prone to cold air pooling. Saturday through Sunday... A slight warm up is expected Saturday as a second upper level wave and associated surface low propagate into the region from Canada. Temperatures may rise into the mid 30s prior to the passage of a cold front. As with the Tuesday night/Wednesday system, scattered snow showers will be possible across the region as the low/cold front move through. Although snowfall amounts are anticipated to be on the low side, confidence in placement and timing is low. A cold arctic airmass moving in behind the cold front will keep temperatures running roughly 10 degrees below seasonal normals with highs in the 20s and lows in the low teens/single digits for Sunday (and likely into Monday). && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 658 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 Clouds across the forecast area, with a lot of variation between IFR and VFR. Should see some more MVFR to IFR ceilings moving into the region as a secondary cold surge comes in this morning. Conditions should begin to improve to VFR by afternoon, with even some clearing possible tonight. Winds will pick up out of the northwest with some gusts above 20 kts possible. Winds will settle down this evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JK SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...JR