150 
FXUS63 KFSD 041051
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
451 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019

With the passage of a cold front and upper level shortwave, 
temperatures will be cooler today with highs in the upper 30s to 
lower 40s. A secondary shortwave will slip across the area today on 
a northwesterly upper level flow , and with very cold air aloft, 
steep lapse rates, and a bit of instability, cannot rule out a few 
rain/snow showers during the afternoon, focused from east central SD 
into southwestern MN. Not expecting much in the way of snow 
accumulation.

Diurnally driven showers will come to an end by this evening. 
Surface high pressure will build across the region overnight, and 
will see a brief period of decreasing clouds early in the night, 
before clouds increase from the southwest later at night. Lows will 
range from near 20 over the northeastern half of our CWA where skies 
will remain cloud free the longest, to mid 20s through the MO River 
Valley where clouds will abound and winds will transition to 
southerly late tonight as the high pressure moves eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019

On Tuesday another shortwave drifts across SD into eastern NE with 
midlevel theta e advection overspreading the region out ahead of the 
feature. With increasing midlevel frontogenesis oriented from 
northwest to southeast across the area, will see increasing 
precipitation chances from east central SD into southwestern 
MN/northwestern IA by afternoon. Thermal profiles would suggest that 
much of this precipitation would fall as snow, though QPF looks to 
be light at this point as the frontal band slides to the east into 
Tuesday evening. The better chances of accumulating snow will be 
over southwestern MN where a half to just over an inch could occur 
by Tuesday night, with the higher amounts from Marshall to Windom.

For Wednesday and Thursday Canadian high pressure builds into the 
region along with strong cold air advection. This will push 
temperatures down with highs only in the 30s on those days - with a 
few 20s possible on Thursday. Lows on Wednesday night will drop well 
into the teens. It will be primarily dry through the period, though 
cannot rule out a few flurries on Wednesday along the leading edge 
of the colder air.

High pressure slides off to the east for the end of the week, with 
some recovery in temperatures as a southerly flow returns to the 
region for Friday and Saturday. This to be followed by a cool down 
by the end of the weekend as colder air is drawn southward via 
deepening upper level energy over eastern Canada. There does not 
appear to be any significant precipitation producers on the
horizon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 449 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2019

Areas of MVFR stratus across the area into the afternoon.
Northwesterly winds will increase, gusting around 20 kts during
the day. Ceilings will lift by afternoon with winds becoming calm
tonight.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM