330 FXUS63 KFGF 031303 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 703 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 703 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Not much being reported yet from the radar returns over the central CWA currently, but included some low POPs for the morning over portions of our MN counties. Better chances coming in from the northwest later today as the shortwave digs down into the region. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 259 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Precip timing and amounts are the main issues for the period. Northwest flow aloft continues with the shortwave currently over Alberta expected to move into the Red River Valley by afternoon. There will be some decent synoptic scale lift with the system. Frontogenesis and banding potential appear limited at this point, but cannot rule out some lake enhancement downwind of our larger bodies of water. Some of the precip in our southwestern counties could be rain early on thanks to some warmer temperatures, but overall think most of the activity will be snow showers or flurries. Highs this afternoon will be similar to the past few days, mid to upper 30s with a few low 40s possible. The snow shower chances will continue tonight into tomorrow morning as a reinforcing shortwave digs down and cold front comes through. Total snow amounts for today through Monday will be light, a dusting to perhaps an inch up by Lake of the Woods. Cold surface high pressure building in will drop Monday highs into the upper 20s to mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 259 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Northwest flow aloft is expected as we go into the long term period early next week, with an upper wave over the northern tier Tue/Wed. Models at this point are in good agreement before beginning to diverge Wed night with the amplitude of an upper ridge over northeast Pac into Gulf of AK, which then slides into BC near the week's end. The weak surface low associated with this upper wave looks to track south of the CWA although there are location/speed differences typical for this far out. Snow showers should enter western zones by late Tue aftn with more widespread light showers Tue night. The latest NAM is most bullish for placement of QPF values over our CWA, while the ECMWF keeps higher amounts across the southern valley into west cntrl MN. For this reason and in collaboration with surrounding offices, preferred a ECMWF/NBM/WPC blend over the dry NBM...yielding up to an inch of fluff Tue evening. The most significant change in sensible weather, however, will be the much cooler airmass behind this system...with highs falling into the 20s for the middle part of the work week. The coldest air should bring overnight lows into teens and single digits by sunrise Thursday morning. Near week's end, GFS H500 pattern is slightly more zonal than the ECMWF, but both models showing a continuation of a northwest flow pattern through the next weekend. There will be a slight warm up Friday as surface high pressure moves off to the east and sets up return flow into the northern tier, but warmest temperatures across the south will remain in the mid-30s with sub-freezing temperatures continuing across the north. The more bullish GFS depicting a Friday night clipper is responsible for blended low POPs mainly across the north Friday into the weekend, with ECMWF keeping precip mainly north of the border. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 703 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 VFR conditions currently, but there should be some MVFR ceilings moving in later today and even some IFR at the MN TAF sites by the end of the period. Scattered snow showers will be possible, but will just include as needed with amendments as there is a lot of uncertainty as to which TAF sites will be affected. Winds will shift around to the northwest but remain below 12 kts. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JR SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...Speicher AVIATION...JR