839 FXUS63 KLBF 031132 AAA AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service North Platte NE 532 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 348 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Near-term concerns revolve around potential for light snow to fall during the morning hours on Monday across the eastern Panhandle into portions of the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska. The first of a couple weak shortwaves will dive into the area around midday today. We could see some light snow in the vicinity of the Pine Ridge this morning but little in the way of impacts are expected as the best moisture remains north of the area and h85 temperatures remain above freezing. The main shortwave arrives across northern Nebraska this afternoon leading to slight chances for light rain for the north central Nebraska counties. Expecting this activity to not last long, clearing out by late afternoon with measurable rain amounts missing the area to the north. Bumped up daytime highs into the 50s for most thanks to downsloping winds and mostly clear skies. Could even see a few locations in southwest Nebraska hit the low 60s this afternoon. The aforementioned shortwave will have a modest speed max associated with it and as such have increased winds slightly with gusts out of the west-northwest approaching 25-30 mph, mainly across the Sandhills. Expect these winds to quickly die down this evening. Have trended Monday morning temperatures warmer while also introducing slight chance and chance PoPs for the Eastern Panhandle into the western Sandhills. Subtle shortwave will help create some weak frontogenesis within a plume of higher h7 moisture which will help lead to isolated to scattered light snow showers across the this area. Forecast soundings, most notably the NAM and GFS, indicate sufficient saturation and favorable lift within the DGZ for snow however marginal low-level temperatures may inhibit snow reaching the surface at least initially and therefore any potential for impactful snow accumulations. For now, have lows generally in the upper 20s to low 30s west to east though this remains colder than most guidance for the time being. Once the column fully saturates after 12z Monday, expect to see a period of wet snow/rain with precipitation quickly wrapping up as the morning progresses and temperatures climb into the upper 30s by midday. For now, thinking a light dusting of snow is possible at most in the affected areas but will limit amounts to that for now. Temperatures for the day will be cooler with highs generally in the 40s as the area sits on the northern periphery of a weak surface high pressure expected to slide west to east generally along the Nebraska/Kansas border. Skies become partly clear for Monday night as the main plume of moisture within the enhanced mid-level flow shifts north. Lows will fall into the low 20s for Tuesday morning. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 348 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Beginning 12z Tuesday. Precipitation chances in the extended forecast will mostly be tied to passing frontal boundaries as main mid-level energy will be more closely tied to the upper-jet expected to remain situated across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest. Daytime highs on Tuesday look to be the warmest until the weekend with highs in the 50s to near 60 south of Interstate 80 thanks to h85 temperatures climbing into the 5-8 degree range and modest daytime mixing. The first frontal boundary will then move through the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a weak surface low treks east across South Dakota. While moisture will be on the increase ahead of this front, upper-level dynamics will be largely displaced to the north limiting any potential for precipitation. Do h ave some slight chance PoPs closer to the Pine Ridge where Black Hills lee-side convergence is maximized. Temperatures will be favorable for snow, but currently not expecting any accumulations to occur. Temperatures will be much colder with highs only in the 30s and 40s for Wednesday only the 30s for Thursday. Split level flow looks to develop by Thursday as weak troughing moves out of the desert southwest and into the southern Plains. At the same time, a strong Arctic high pressure system will dive southeast into the upper Mississippi Valley and settle east of the area by Friday. This will not only keep the coldest air east of us, but bring a quicker return to southerly flow and thus a warming trend heading into the weekend. Little in the way of mid-level energy looks to move into the area for Thursday through Saturday, leaving the area dry with high temperatures returning to the 50s and 60s by Saturday. The next strong push of cold air looks to move in for Sunday as another strong Arctic high pressure drifts south into the area. Frontogenesis on the forward edge of this approaching surface high will effectively squeeze out the remaining moisture bringing rain and snow chances back to portions of the area. These PoPs will favor the Nebraska/South Dakota border as confidence is higher for that area to see the best upper-level support at the same time. Given spatial and temporal uncertainties between NWP output, will keep PoPs at chance and slight chance for the time being with confidence remaining medium at best. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 530 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 VFR is generally expected today and tonight across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. A weak upper air disturbance, currently across the Black Hills, will move east-southeast through ncntl Nebraska today producing sprinkles and snow showers. A cold front entering northern Nebraska around 20z this afternoon may do the same. Late tonight, after 06z, MVFR in low cloudiness and light snow could develop across the Nebraska Panhandle. The threat of this weather will increase toward 12z Monday morning. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Jurgensen LONG TERM...Jurgensen AVIATION...CDC