489 FXUS63 KICT 031124 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 524 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 ...Updated for Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 246 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Today-tonight: Minor tweaks to the going forecast for highs today. A bit more wind and return flow should allow temperatures to reach to 60s over much of the area. Some mid to high clouds will spread across parts of central KS tonight, with weak front sweeping across nearly the entire area by daybreak Monday. Shaded lows up a bit due to the anticipated clouds and mixing with the frontal passage overnight. Monday-Tuesday: Modest cold air advection in wake of the front on Monday. Surface ridge axis moves across the area Monday night with return flow developing on Tuesday. Return flow develops in west on Tuesday. -Howerton .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 246 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 00 UTC ECMWF/GFS are still in fairly good agreement with upper pattern during this period, although latest runs show subtle differences with a northern stream ripple. GFS has trended a bit faster with overall progression of the system, and is faster than ECMWF. Attempted to stay the course but continued issues with initialization grids required considerable adjustments to chances of precipitation, especially to trim back on chances along northern edge. Increased minimums again for Wednesday morning over initialization to the median. This is likely not warm enough but is headed in the right direction. Surge of colder air Wednesday night should push front south of the area by daybreak Thursday. Precipitation should exit southeast KS by late afternoon. Very little recovery is expected on Thursday with continued cold air advection, resulting in highs only in the 30s. Modest recovery is expected on Friday, with return flow on Saturday boosting temperatures substantially, albeit still below normals. -Howerton && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 523 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Fairly quiet VFR conditions anticipated the next 24 hours. Breezy/gusty south-southwest winds will increase by midday, especially for locations generally along/east of Salina to Hutchinson to Harper. Winds will subside by early evening. A weak cool front approaching from the northwest will support a northerly wind shift tonight, although winds behind the frontal passage should be no higher than around 10 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 246 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2019 Gusty south winds will result in very high grassland fire danger index across southeast KS, roughly along and east of a line from Eureka to Sedan. -Howerton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 62 36 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson 62 35 57 31 / 0 0 10 0 Newton 61 36 56 32 / 0 0 10 0 ElDorado 61 37 57 35 / 0 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 62 37 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 Russell 62 35 53 29 / 0 10 10 0 Great Bend 62 34 54 28 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 63 37 55 30 / 0 10 10 0 McPherson 61 35 55 30 / 0 0 10 0 Coffeyville 62 38 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Chanute 61 38 58 35 / 0 0 0 0 Iola 61 38 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 61 38 61 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PJH LONG TERM...PJH AVIATION...ADK FIRE WEATHER...PJH