749 FXUS61 KRLX 030129 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 929 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Weak cold front today. High pressure Sunday and Monday. Dry and weak cold front Monday night/Tuesday. Stronger cold later in the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 927 PM Saturday... Minimal changes needed to inherited forecast. Adjusted hourly temps some to fall more in line with current temps. Still expecting a few light snow showers in the NE mountains later tonight, but any accumulations should be rather light. As of 145 PM Saturday... With high pressure retreating at the surface a weak and dry cold front will traverse thru the tonight and although this near term is prog to be relatively dry and cold a few showers have potential to develop in the CWA during the night. An upper level feature will provide cloud coverage and a good chance for some mixed rain/snow at first, then a quick changeover to all snow in the northeast mountains for tonight into Sunday morning. However, with moisture being very shallow, near -8 to 9C on the very low end side of ice crystal growth potential, any snow development will be light in nature. Basically there is potential for a good snow dusting along the extreme northeastern mountains with possibly up to around a half an inch in accumulations at the highest elevations. The feature does bring some lower clouds to the area so its not out of the question to see an isolated flake elsewhere, however no accumulations are expected. This weak cold front will not cause the area to be colder only reinforcing these cold temperatures to stick around creating overnight lows fairly similar to last night although just slightly warmer due to cloud coverage. The snow dusting wont last long as high pressure moves right back in after frontal passage in the very early the morning. Daytime temps are not expected to not have much of a diurnal swing either and will struggle to reach into the upper 40's areawide while the higher elevations staying below freezing. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 PM Saturday... A high pressure system will provide dry weather for Sunday night and Monday. A weak and moisture starved cold front will then move across the area Monday night into Tuesday. Moisture in the models seems to be insufficient for precipitation, so will just go with an increase in clouds. High pressure builds back in for Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 220 PM Saturday... Models begin to diverge considerably during this period. Some models are showing an upper level trough with a strong cold front moving through for the end of the work week, while other models show a much weaker trough with a weaker cold front. Therefore, confidence during this period becomes low. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 717 PM Saturday... Sfc front currently moving east across the region is primarily only denoted by a NE to SW oriented band of mid level cloudiness. Additional bands of cloudiness should move across the area tonight, but conditions for the primary aerodromes are expected to prevail at VFR. For areas near the mountains (excluding KEKN), some scattered -SHSN may occur from late evening into the overnight hours resulting in MVFR. VFR to continue during the day Sunday with mainly clear skies. Wrly sfc winds 5 to 10 kts through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Small chance that MVFR CIGs may spread across KEKN tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 11/03/19 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JZ NEAR TERM...RH/JZ SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...RH