216 FXUS64 KBMX 021631 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1131 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 .UPDATE... Morning Update. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 1124 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2019/ Based on temperature trends, will nudge highs up a couple degrees across the board this afternoon. No other major changes made to the ongoing forecast. Will then need to look at updated low temperature forecasts for tonight, and will probably need to transition the freeze watch to a warning before to long. /61/ Previous short-term discussion: /Updated at 0333 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2019/ Through Tonight. A reinforcing cold front will come through during the afternoon. Winds will pick up as the front moves through, but that is really it. There is no moisture to work with so the front will move through dry, and even perhaps cloudless. High pressure will build in behind the front and we will need to watch for sub-freezing temperatures again tonight. Look for low 30s north to upper 30s south. There may be just enough wind to limit the frost potential across the south. With still some uncertainty on how far south the freezing temperatures will make it in 24 hours, opted for a freeze watch for now. 16 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0333 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2019/ Sunday through Friday. High pressure will remain in place across the southeastern CONUS on Sunday with a large upper-level trough encompassing most of the U.S. and Canada east of the Rockies. Temperatures will start out in the 30s, but sunny skies and a very dry airmass will favor temperatures recovering into the upper 50s and lower 60s for Sunday afternoon. The surface ridge axis extending westward from the Carolinas will promote light winds and radiational cooling Sunday night with mid 30s to lower 40s for lows on Monday morning. Patchy frost is expected across our northern counties and typically colder locations of East-Central Alabama. A warming and slow moistening trend is expected for Monday through Wednesday night with persistent west-southwest flow at the base of the large-scale trough anchored to our north. Due to the absence of discernible focus or lifting mechanisms, rain has been kept out of the forecast for this period. The next significant weather system may begin to affect the region on Thursday as a southern stream shortwave ejects in conjunction with a northern stream wave moving across the northern CONUS. This could result in rain becoming widespread Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Due to model timing discrepancies and confidence in the amount of lift, rain chances will be held in the 30-40 percent range for now. With a 1040+ mb high pressure surging southward across the Plains, a strong cold frontal passage should bring dry conditions and a sharp drop in temperatures for Friday into Friday night. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF Discussion. Overall VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. We have some valley/river fog at ANB and ASN so included a tempo for the next 2 hours for this. Looks like the fog should burn off fairly quickly though. Winds increase during the day to around 10 kts with some mixing out to 15 to 17 kts in the afternoon. Winds calm back to less than 5 kts after 00z. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... A surge of high pressure will bring northwest winds of 10-20 mph and dry conditions to the region today. Dry conditions will continue on Sunday with much lighter winds. Minimum RH values should range from 30 to 40 percent each afternoon. && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for the following counties: Blount...Calhoun...Cherokee...Clay... Cleburne...Etowah...Fayette...Jefferson...Lamar...Marion... Randolph...Shelby...St. Clair...Talladega...Walker...Winston. && $$