395 FXUS63 KDLH 021605 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1105 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1105 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Made some minor updates to increase winds this morning and adjust the POPs, but forecast generally remains on track this morning. Snow showers and wind will diminish this afternoon as an area of high pressure builds in from the west, but cloudy skies will persist. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 318 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Scattered snow showers continue to be observed on local radar imagery as well as area web cams early this morning. The cause of this is a nearly neutrally-tilted mid-level trough axis that is sweeping across the region. The large-scale forcing appears to be quite weak, but cyclonic flow and cold air advection aloft are helping to maintain steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient moisture within the dendritic growth layer, causing ice crystals to form aloft. Similar to the day shift yesterday, leaned heavily on the HREF for PoPs as it continues the broad-brushed approach, which is handling the scattered nature of the light snow very well. There may also be some lake effect/enhanced snow coming off inland lakes over north-central Minnesota, particularly off Lake of the Woods and Upper and Lower Red Lakes. Through the morning hours today, snow accumulations will generally be light, with only between a few tenths of an inch to the south, up to around one and a half inches downstream of these inland lakes. There could be some slick road conditions resulting from this light snow, especially over north- central Minnesota where some light accumulations are being observed on the web cams. MNDot road conditions are indicating some partially covered roads from Ely west towards the Effie, Orr, Littlefork, International Falls, and Birchdale areas. Eventually, this snow activity should diminish as we go into the afternoon hours as drier air filters into the region along with a surface high pressure ridge. The upper-level trough will kick out to the east, which could lead to some peeks of sunshine this afternoon but thinking partly to mostly cloudy skies will be common. The steep low-level lapse rates should hang on through the day, which will help maintain some gusty northwest winds via momentum transport, with gusts between 15 to 20 mph possible. Highs today should remain cool, in the lower to middle 30s. Troughing will re-intensify in the upper-levels tonight, which will bring another shortwave impulse across the region for late tonight through Sunday. An associates surface low pressure system will build into the region Sunday, bringing increasing chances of precipitation, mainly as a rain/snow mix. Any snow accumulations look to be very light at this point. Higher chances of precipitation appear possible in the evening and overnight hours. Due to more southerly flow Sunday, high temperatures will warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 The upper pattern continues to be representative of mid-winter with a broad CONUS trof in place through Thursday night. A northwest flow associated with this trof will cover the region, and pieces of short wave energy will glide across the area periodically. At the surface, a baggy area of low pressure will meander around the Great Lakes Sunday night through Monday night. One of the stronger short waves moves over the region Sunday night and will provide some accumulating snow. Around one inch of accumulation is possible along the higher terrain areas of the North Shore of Lake Superior. Up to one inch along the Borderland. Lighter amounts elsewhere. The short wave departs Monday, although some additional impulses will move through the area. Additional snow accumulation is possible. However, warm air ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to mixed rain/snow, or all rain for a few hours, and will keep snow amounts low. The last short wave moves over the region Monday night. Moisture is limited as drier air is approaching from the west and will affect any potential for accumulation. Have pops diminishing from west to east. High pressure moves in for Tuesday. Next round of snow arrives Tuesday night and lingers through Wednesday morning, diminishing in the afternoon. This is in response to another short wave moving through the large aforementioned trof. Some light accumulation may occur Tuesday night. Dry air begins to advect into the area Wednesday ahead of high pressure building through the Northern Plains, resulting in the subsiding trend. High pressure will affect much of the area Wednesday afternoon. Some light lake effect snow is possible over the snow belt of northwest Wisconsin with a cold, northwest flow over Lake Superior. High pressure covers much of the region Wednesday night and Thursday. However, one last long wave trof moves across the region. Moisture is very limited and will only have some small pops over the higher terrain areas of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. The passage of this last wave signals a change in the overall pattern for Thursday night and Friday, with warmer air becoming available and lower chances for precipitation. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Mainly MVFR cigs at the start of the forecast with some isold/sct snow showers near several of the terminals. Timing of the snow showers is in question and used a VCSH mention. Updates will occur when vsby restrictions occur near the more robust snow showers. Gusty surface winds are expected through the day, diminishing near sunset. MVFR cigs will improve to VFR periodically today, but more likely this evening, before returning to MVFR late. && .MARINE... Issued at 1105 AM CDT Sat Nov 2 2019 A period of stronger west-northwest winds may get close to Small Craft Advisory conditions this afternoon along parts of the south shore, then winds weaken this evening becoming west to southwest at 5 to 10 knots through Sunday. Winds become less than 5 knots Sunday night, then on Monday a cold front brings another round of increasing northwest winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 33 25 39 28 / 20 10 30 50 INL 32 25 38 26 / 40 30 20 40 BRD 35 27 41 28 / 0 10 20 30 HYR 34 24 42 28 / 20 10 20 40 ASX 36 26 42 28 / 40 10 20 50 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...JJM SHORT TERM...JTS LONG TERM...GSF AVIATION...GSF MARINE...JJM