823 FXUS61 KPHI 011618 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1218 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will strengthen across southeastern Canada today. High pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic region tonight into Saturday. A weak but dry cold front crosses our area Saturday night, then high pressure builds in later Sunday and Monday. The next cold front moves through late Tuesday, followed by high pressure Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The strongest of the winds have gusted to 40 mph through late morning, but winds should continue to diminish this afternoon, generally averaging 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. High pressure builds in from west with strong CAA continuing. Highs today will be some 20 degrees colder than Thursday, generally topping off in the 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... Went ahead and converted the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning, and expanded the Warning to include all but Philadelphia county, as well as the coastal NJ counties and DE beaches. Think the airmass will be cold enough and radiational cooling will be strong enough to allow for freezing and sub-freezing temps late tonight. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Summary...Colder conditions through the weekend, then temperatures moderate some Tuesday into Wednesday before some cooling again for the end of next week. A period of dry weather anticipated, with only Tuesday and Tuesday night having a chance for some showers. Synoptic Overview...An upper-level trough amplifies eastward from the Midwest, Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley Friday night and Saturday. This trough slides across the East over the weekend but quickly lifts out by later Sunday. The flow looks to turn more zonal later Sunday before the next trough takes shape across the Midwest later Monday into Tuesday, which may then stick around through late next week centered near the Great Lakes and south-central Canada regions. For Saturday through Sunday...An upper-level trough from south- central Canada and the Midwest Friday night will amplify eastward through Saturday, then lift out of the Northeast during Sunday. Surface high pressure over our area Friday night will weaken into Saturday, then a weak but dry cold front crosses our area Saturday night. This front may actually dissipate as it crosses our area, with it being more of a dew point boundary. A little warmer Saturday afternoon ahead of the weak cold front, then cooler again Sunday. Some frost possible again Saturday night, however it may be a little milder given a weak front moving through. There could then be a widespread freeze Sunday night as high pressure builds right across our area. For Monday and Tuesday...An overall central to eastern Canadian trough will extend across the Midwest, Great Lakes and into the Northeast with our area mostly on the far southeast side of it. High pressure across the region Monday will retreat to the northeast into Tuesday. A short wave trough embedded in the larger trough will track well to our north late Tuesday taking surface low pressure with it. An associated cold front will move through our area Tuesday night, however the moisture return looks on the weak side. We cannot rule out some showers with the front mainly Tuesday night, therefore maintained some low PoPs for now. It will turn milder though Tuesday in advance of the cold front. For Wednesday and Thursday...A more zonal flow takes shape across the East and will result in surface high pressure extending eastward across our area. Given the zonal flow though and an impulse coming out of the Plains Thursday, some additional clouds may be tossed our way. The surface high and its air mass source should result in some cooling during this time frame, as the air mass dries out behind a cold front which is anticipated to be offshore to start Wednesday. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR/SKC. W-NW winds 15-20 kt with 20-30 kt gusts through the afternoon, diminishing late. Tonight...VFR/SKC. NW winds less than 10 kt, becoming LGT/VRB. High confidence. OUTLOOK... Saturday...VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming south or southwest around 5 knots during the day, then shifting to west- northwest at night. High confidence. Sunday and Monday...VFR. West-northwest winds 10-15 knots Sunday, diminishing Sunday night, then turning southerly 5-10 knots Monday. Moderate confidence. Tuesday...Mostly VFR. A chance of some showers especially at night. Southerly winds near 10 knots. Low confidence. && .MARINE... Today...SCA for W-NW winds 15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts runs until 7pm for the ocean waters and until 4 pm for DE Bay. Tonight...Sub-SCA conditions on tap for tonight. OUTLOOK... Saturday and Sunday...The conditions remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria Saturday. West to northwest winds should increase with possible gusts to 25 knots Saturday night into Sunday, then diminish some by Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday...The conditions are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels continue to recede, so the Coastal Flood Statement that was in effect for portions of Ocean county in NJ and Sussex County in DE has been cancelled. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ060>062- 070-101>106. NJ...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ008>010- 012-013-015>023-027. DE...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for DEZ001>003. MD...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ008-012- 015-019-020. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ430- 431. && $$ Synopsis...Gorse Near Term...Robertson/MPS Short Term...Robertson Long Term...Gorse Aviation...Gorse/Robertson/MPS Marine...Gorse/Robertson/MPS Tides/Coastal Flooding...