610 FXUS61 KBTV 010838 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 438 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A powerful low pressure system will depart north and east of Vermont this morning, but strong post-frontal winds will continue through the daylight hours. Anticipate localized wind gusts up to 65 mph across the St. Lawrence Valley, and widespread wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph across the remainder of northern New York and central and northern Vermont. Lighter winds return tonight with high pressure building in from the west, leading to cooler and drier conditions for Saturday. Sunday will feature a few light rain showers, and possible higher summit snow showers, with valley highs generally in the mid 40s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 152 AM EDT Friday...Flood Watch remains in effect for expected main-stem river crests this morning into this afternoon (see hydro section for details). Likewise, High Wind Warnings continue thru 21Z for the St. Lawrence Valley, with Wind Advisories still in place elsewhere thru 21Z. Sharp cold front has translated east of the Champlain Valley at 06Z, and will exit east of the CT River Valley by 08Z or so. With associated 1.7-1.9" PW axis shifting out of our forecast area, this effectively ends the heavy rainfall threat. However, the record October rains of the past 24 hours will continue to contribute to runoff and main-stem river rises/flooding. Please refer to our flood warnings and statements for the latest details as river levels will be rapidly changing. High winds remain a significant concern today, especially across far nrn NY. Strong low pressure (989mb) exiting newd across srn Quebec will allow an impressive axis of 60-70kt swly 850mb winds to translate across our northern counties between 12-16Z this morning. With the ongoing post-frontal low-level CAA leading to steep lapse rates, should see good downward mixing potential. Wind gusts to 65 mph still look on track 7-11am in the St. Lawrence Valley, and gusts 35-50 mph elsewhere. Anticipate potential for widespread power outages across far nrn NY, and generally scattered outages elsewhere across the North Country. Will see a few lingering showers, especially into the Adirondacks today with upslope flow conditions and moisture from Lake Ontario. May see snow showers above 2000' or so. By evening, wind speeds rapidly drop off and lake enhanced showers should come to an end. Highs today generally in the low- mid 40s across nrn NY, and in the upper 40s to lower 50s across VT...thus much closer to seasonal levels to start November. A quiet Friday night is anticipated as high pressure builds ewd into the North Country. Much of the area will clear out with temps falling into the 28-32F range in most spots. May see some patchy fog in the deeper valley locations. Saturday will be much quieter with partly to mostly sunny conditions. Highs generally in the mid-40s to near 50F. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 AM EDT Friday...An upper trough will swing through the region during this period with little fanfare other than some light, scattered rain/snow shower activity. Most of this will be concentrated to the lee of Lake Ontario and across the northern higher terrain with broader valleys and southern VT counties remaining largely dry. Temperatures remain seasonably cool with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s and highs mainly in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 AM EDT Friday...Rather uneventful period of weather for much of next week. We remain in cool, broadly cyclonic flow aloft with scattered shower activity interspersed by brief periods of weak high pressure. The highest threat of showers generally appears to occur later Tuesday into Tuesday evening, and again by next Thursday when global solutions are in best agreement showing surface trough passages. Temperatures remain near or slightly below seasonal norms through much of the period with daily highs mainly in the 40s to locally around 50 in the broader valleys and overnight lows mainly in the upper 20s into the 30s. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 12Z Saturday...Very active and turbulent aviation weather conditions will continue through the daylight hours today as strong low pressure passes north of the intl border. Strong post- frontal W-SW winds will be the main issue. The highest winds will be at KMSS, reaching 50kt or so 12-16Z. Elsewhere, will see widespread gusts 35-45kt, with potential for severe low-level turbulence. Will see ceilings generally improve to VFR by daybreak areawide, but upslope rain/snow showers into KSLK through mid-morning will result in localized MVFR conditions there. Winds will remain W-SW into tonight, but decrease significantly after 00Z. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 430 AM EDT Thursday...Significant flooding has occurred and remains ongoing today from the Adirondacks (especially Essex County NY) newd across the Champlain Valley, and into central/far n-central VT. Felt it best to maintain the ongoing flood watch, to account for the upcoming main-stem river crests today. Rivers will crest this morning into early this afternoon following widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4" yesterday into early this morning. The highest rainfall amounts occurred across the Adirondacks newd across the Champlain Valley into far n-central VT. The heavy rain threat has passed with cold front departing eastward, but runoff and main-stem river rises will remain significant over the next 6-9 hours. Will see widespread MODERATE category flooding, with localized major flooding forecast later today for the Missisquoi at East Berkshire and North Troy, as well as the Winooksi at Essex Jct. Significant street flooding will also take several hours to subside in downtown Burlington this AM. Owing to the rapidly changing nature of water levels over the next several hours, please refer to updated flood warnings/statements for the latest details. && .MARINE... Lake wind advisory continues on Lake Champlain for today. Winds will shift southwesterly early this morning, but generally remain 20 to 30 knots through the daylight hours. Waves of 3 to 5 feet with moderate chop can be expected this morning. Winds on Lake Champlain will fall below 20 knots after sunset this evening. && .CLIMATE... Several long-standing rainfall records have been broken. At Burlington, a new daily record rainfall for October 31st was set yesterday with 3.3" of rain, beating the old record of 1.16" on 10/31/1894. This is the second highest one day rainfall total at Burlington in the month of October (record is 4.19" 10/6/1932). We also observed the wettest October on record at Burlington, with 8.50" last month. The old October monthly rainfall record was 6.75" in 1918. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Flood Watch through this evening for VTZ002>012-016>019. Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for VTZ001>012- 016>019. NY...High Wind Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ026-027- 029>031-087. Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ028-030-031-034-035. Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ028-034-035. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Banacos HYDROLOGY...Banacos MARINE...Banacos CLIMATE...Banacos