210 
FXUS63 KFGF 311520
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1020 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Cloud cover clearing in our east, however mid level cloud deck
ahead of approaching upstream shortwave is already spreading into
our northwest. WAA associated with southwest flow has yet to kick
into full gear, so temps have been a little slow to warm up after
a very cold start. Still expect above freezing temps, but 
upstream cloud cover could complicate our highs in some areas 
reaching 40 range today. Adjustments made to time out cloud 
cover, but held steady on temp forecast for now. 

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Low clouds continue to inch slowly eastward this morning, but have
yet to clear out of the Bemidji, Park Rapids, and Wadena areas.
Meanwhile, more mid and high clouds have already streamed into the
Devils Lake region and northeast North Dakota. Still expect there
will be some morning sun in most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Lows clouds continue to hold tough across the far eastern FA,
while mid and high clouds are already streaming into the western
FA. There may be some morning sun in some areas, but overall there
will probably be more clouds than sun today. With weak warm
advection and southwest winds, highs should be a little warmer
than Wednesday. A cold front will push through again tonight, but
cloud cover will help prevent temperatures from falling too far.
With the frontal passage, winds will switch to the northwest in
all areas by Friday morning. Chances are looking less now for
accumulating snow later tonight into Friday morning. Most areas
may just see flurries to very light snow. There may still be a
dusting of accumulation south of the Interstate 94 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Friday will be back in the trough axis, meaning more light snow or
flurries. Highs will drop back more into the low to mid 30s with
gusty northwest winds.

Friday night to Saturday night...Northwest flow aloft will remain
over the area with short waves moving through the flow. Short 
wave over western Ontario will produce light snow over the far 
northeast zones Fri night. Another short wave will move south into
Ontario Sat night with light snow again expected over the far 
northeast zones Sat-Sat night. 

Sunday to Wednesday...Long wave pattern de-amplifies a bit this 
period. Long wave trough remains essentially over Hudson Bay and 
western Great Lakes but with a lower amplitude. Long wave ridge 
from the eastern Pacific into the Bering Straits weakens through 
the period. The ECMWF becomes the faster than the GFS after Mon. 

Split flow upstream will allow short waves to move along two 
channels in the northwest flow aloft. Another short wave will move 
out of Canada Mon/Mon night. Colder air is expected to move out of 
Canada after Mon. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Think the low clouds should move east of KBJI in the next hour or
so. Otherwise for most of the day, just looking at increasing mid
and high level clouds and southwest winds. Tonight, winds will
turn more west to northwest, and there is a potential for a return
of the lower clouds again.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/JH
AVIATION...Godon