035 FXUS64 KLCH 310455 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 .DISCUSSION... For the 10/31/19 0600 UTC TAF package. && .AVIATION... No major changes from previous forecast. Mix of IFR/MVFR CIGS following fropa along with winds veering to the NW and increasing/becoming gusty. Low clouds and areas of mainly light rain will continue through the night, with an overall guidance consensus indicating clearing from generally W to E THU morning. Winds remain elevated through the day, subsiding in the evening. 13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 940 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019/ DISCUSSION... Wx map shows cold front just moved through Alexandria, Oakdale, Lake Charles, approaching Jennings this evening. With that said, temperatures/dewpoints in the mid 70s across South Central Louisiana ahead of the front, already in the mid/upper 50s behind the front across Southeast Texas. Radar showing scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead and along the front, as well as over-running activity behind the front across Southwest Louisiana & Southeast Texas. Thus far, the progression of the front and over-running rainfall is going according to forecast. However, had to update the temperature/dewpoint grids, as the cold air advection is bringing colder temperatures a bit sooner, expecting slight cooler daybreak temperatures on Halloween morning. DML PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 720 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019/ DISCUSSION... For the 10/31/19 0000 UTC TAF package. AVIATION... CDFNT continues to slowly push east across the area early this evening, with scattered pre and post frontal showers and a couple of TSTMS ahead of the boundary noted on radar. Prevailed VCTS at the Acadiana terminals through late evening with these sites still within the pre-frontal warm sector, with VCSH carried at the remaining sites well into the overnight period. VFR is currently prevailing at the Acadiana terminals, with post-frontal IFR CIGS at KBPT and KAEX, and on the doorstep of KLCH. These low CIGS will invade the Acadiana terminals later this evening with FROPA, and end areawide from west to east THU morning. Winds veer to the NW behind the front, and increase/become gusty a couple of hours later. These elevated winds will persist through the day on THU, beginning to subside from west to east early evening. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 442 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019/ SYNOPSIS... Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows amplified positively tilted trough aloft extending from Hudson Bay to the southern Rockies upstream of a ridge over the east Gulf and FL. A shortwave embedded in the trough over E CO is fcst to eject into the plains tonight as a jet max strengthens and translates into the plains. At the sfc, southerly winds are ushering warmer Gulf air into the area in advance of a cold front approaching the lower Sabine Valley. KLCH radar shows a band of showers and tstms just ahead of the front, with more sctd showers and storms further east. The front marks a strong temperature gradient acrs the region with upper 70s/lower 80s acrs southern LA to middle 50s acrs SE TX around Houston and Conroe. 24 DISCUSSION... The deep trough will accelerate east this evening, as shortwave energy over CO ejects into the plains. This will speed the eastward progression of the cold front this evening, as sfc low pres over the lower MS valley lifts northeast toward OH. Will continue to monitor convective development tonight as the front moves through the area. SPC has maintained a MRGL outlook for tonight acrs portions of S Cntl LA, with the risk of locally strong gusts or a brief tornado. Fcst soundings show modest buoyancy and shear suggestive of the potential for a few stronger storms, but more widespread or significant severe weather is not expected as better support aloft will be displaced to the north. Strong north winds will follow in the wake of the front, which is expected to exit s cntl LA by 12Z Thu. Colder temperatures will move into the region with lows falling into the lower 40s acrs the Lakes Region, middle 40s from cntl LA into lower SE TX and SW LA, and upper 40s acrs the Acadiana region. Blustery and cold conditions are expected through the day Thursday, with lingering light rain or drizzle tapering off from northwest to southeast through the morning. Aftn highs will only climb into the 50s. With gusty winds continuing, a Wind Advisory is in effect for the coastal parishes and county with sustained winds 20 to 25 KT and gusts up to 35 KT possible overnight into Thursday. High pres will build over the region through Friday, maintaining a dry weather pattern with chilly nights and cool days through the end of the week. A secondary shortwave will bring another front through the area Saturday to reinforce cool dry conditions for the weekend. Early next week, the sfc high will move east, with southeast winds developing. Temperatures will trend warmer, with relative humidity increasing. A weak shortwave moving through the zonal flow aloft will bring small rain chcs to the area by late Monday. 24 MARINE... Lt to modt onshore flow will continue late this aftn into this evening ahead of a strong cold front that will move through the area tonight. Strong offshore flow will develop in the wake of the front as it brings much colder air into the region. Sustained winds of up to 30 KT with frequent gusts to gale force can be expected overnight into Thursday, and a Gale Warning is in effect for the entire coastal waters zones. Winds will diminish late Thurs night into Friday. Offshore flow will continue through the weekend, strengthening briefly late Saturday into Sunday behind a reinforcing cold front. Winds will become more east then southeast early next week as the sfc high moves east. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 40 54 34 57 / 80 10 0 0 LCH 44 57 37 58 / 70 20 0 0 LFT 47 56 36 58 / 80 20 0 0 BPT 43 55 38 58 / 70 10 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ052>055-073-074. TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ215. GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472- 475. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ430-432-435. && $$