706 FXUS61 KCAR 310002 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 802 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will stall across northern Maine overnight. Low pressure will approach Thursday then cross the region Friday. High pressure will build across the area Saturday. A cold front will cross the region Sunday. High pressure will cross the region Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Update... A cold front will stall across northern Maine overnight, while low pressure crosses the Ohio Valley. Could have a chance of rain across northern areas early tonight. Rain then develops across the entire forecast area overnight. Low temperatures tonight will range through the 40s north, to around 50 to the lower 50s Downeast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with overnight temperatures, clouds and rain chances. Previous Discussion... A low over Ohio with a warm front extending into Northwestern Maine will be the primary weather feature to affect our area through the near term period. By Thursday morning the low will move east to Lake Ontario, the warm front will affect the entire state. The warm front will remain fairly stationary across the state through the end of the period, as the low tracks east along the front. By the end of the period the low will track east to Northern New Hampshire/Southern Quebec. Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM to smooth out the minor differences in the models. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Upr lvl trof mvg thru the Rockies this aftn will mv into the Great Lks Thu evening. Sfc low pressure associated with this system wl slide into the Lk Erie region by 00z Fri with wmfnt extending to the northeast along the international brdr. CWA wl be in the warm sector Thu night as low intensifies ovr swrn Quebec. LLJ intensifies rapidly bfr midnight Thu night as H9 winds increase to between 50-60kts by 03z along the Downeast coast. By 12z Fri expect that H9 winds will be on the order of 70-75kts over far sern zones. Hv issued a High Wind Watch for Hancock and coastal and central Washington counties from 06z-15z Friday. Only caveat will be how much of an impact the stable layer in the blyr wl hv on mixing during the ovrngt hrs. The other story will be the rainfall, locally heavy at times throughout the ovrngt hrs. Models are trending a tad further north with the hvy rain threat along the frontal bndry as intensifying lopres mvs thru nrn Aroostook Fri mrng. At the same time, a convective squall line looks to mv thru the area on Fri mrng immediately along the cdfnt. SHERB parameters > 1.0 drg the morning so wl definitely be able to feel fropa as it mvs thru. Hv not added in thunder attm as vry meager lapse rates preclude a mention but cannot rule out an isold lightning strike with this line. SW winds wl gust to advisory criteria in the aftn acrs the rest of the region as deep mixing to H8 wl easily transfer momentum down to the sfc upwards of 40kts. Expect that a wind advisory will likely be needed for Friday in wake of cdfnt passage. Power outages are expected on Friday with mins on Saturday dropping into the 20s acrs the north and nr frzg ovr Downeast areas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Temps on Saturday wl be a few degrees blo normal with highs in the 40s ovr the entire area. High pressure will build in fm the west on Sat mrng with dry and mosunny conds expected throughout the day. Fairly benign wx pattern in the offing thru the end of the long term pd. Temps wl moderate drg the extndd with upr lvl ridge rmng thru the day Tue. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Variable conditions, ranging from VFR to LIFR, will occur across the region early tonight. Conditions will lower to IFR/LIFR levels across the entire region overnight with developing rain. IFR/LIFR conditions will persist across the region Thursday with rain. Low level wind shear will be a concern across the region Thursday. South winds will gust to 20 to 30 mph across much of the region Thursday, with 30 to 40 mph gusts along the Downeast coast. SHORT TERM: Thu night: IFR in rain and fog with terminals in warm sector. +RA may affect PQI, CAR and FVE overnight. LLWS will likely be a factor for all terminals through Fri morning with strong and gusty south sfc winds as well. Fri: IFR improves to MVFR/VFR as fropa occurs between 12z and 15z. Winds will shift to the sw as become gusty in the afternoon, up to 35-40kts. LLWS rmns likely immediately ahead of cold front during the morning. Sat-Sat night: VFR under high pressure. Light winds becoming light southerly Sat night. Sun: MVFR/IFR cigs possible over northern terminals with next system. W winds 5-10kts. Mon: VFR. Light S winds. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds will increase to small craft advisory levels overnight then to Gale levels Thursday. A Gale Warning remains in effect starting Thursday afternoon. Visibilities will lower in developing rain overnight, with rain persisting Thursday. SHORT TERM: Winds will be gusting to gale force into Friday evening before diminishing to SCA levels into Sat morning. Winds will rmn blow SCA levels through the day Monday. Seas wl increase over 10ft Fri evening and increase to between 14-19ft Fri mrng in southerly swell. Seas will remain elevated into Sat morning before dropping below 5ft into the early part of the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for MEZ016-017-029-030. MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 PM Thursday to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Norton Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Norcross/Norton/Farrar Marine...Norcross/Farrar