560 FXUS63 KILX 301525 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1025 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1025 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Periods of cold rain will affect central and southeast Illinois, through this afternoon. Tonight, an upper level disturbance approaching the area, will bring more widespread rainfall. As colder air filters in on increasing northwest winds, the rain will turn to snow. Accumulating snow is possible for parts of central and northern Illinois tonight and Thursday. Blustery and cold weather will dominate the area Thursday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Winter weather advisory expired at 10 AM as snowfall has diminished. 1 to 3 inch snowfall reports were confined northwest of the IL River, mainly on grassy/elevated surfaces. A band of rain centered on I-55 currently, will shift east through early afternoon. A brief lull in forcing this afternoon will lead to just spotty showers or areas of drizzle. Winter-like highs in the mid to upper 30s west of I-55, while the far southeast will reach the upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Winter Weather Advisory continues through 15z today, as snowfall is currently falling along and northwest of the IL River. Will monitor for possible new WW.Y tonight into Thursday as additional snowfall is expected. An upper level Low pressure system will continue to develop across the mountains, before sliding into the southern Plains and finally into the Midwest. Ahead of this system, weak sfc Low is developing in southern Louisiana, ushering moisture into the se US. As northerly winds continue to limit the northerly progression of this system, precipitation will continue to ride along the main axis through se MO into central IL. Current radar indicates the freezing line, along the Illinois River. This line will shift slightly northwest through the morning, however widespread rain and snow will continue throughout the morning across central and northwest IL. Isolated to scattered showers will linger across southeast Illinois this morning, before a lull in precip shifts across southern Missouri into south central Illinois. Additional rain and snowfall is expected to return later this evening through the overnight, as the upper Low slowly progresses into the Midwest. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Freeze Watch has been issued for Thursday night into early Friday morning, as temperatures are expected to drop into the 20s, with wind chills falling into the teens. As the sfc Low lifts northeast through the Ohio Valley, this will allow stronger WNW winds to slide into the Midwest. These winds will aid in the rapid movement of the backedge through Illinois into Indiana. However, with the much colder temperatures aiding in the movement of the sfc Low, this will aid in development of widespread snow across northern IL. The upper level trof will slide into IL Thursday, and then progress northeast into the Great Lakes. Expect additional accumulations along and north of the IL River, with some light snowfall forecast along and north of I-72. Gusty winds will arrive Thursday, as pressure gradients tighten significantly with the close proximity of the sfc Low passage. Current forecast trends continue to increase winds, with forecasts upwards of 35-40mph gusts, with 20-30mph sustained. This will aid in the rapid exit of the system through Thursday. Unfortunately, behind the system, colder temperatures will arrive. Lows heading into Friday are forecast to drop into the 20s around the region, with wind chills falling into the teens. Dry weather returns for the weekend, as a couple rounds of High pressure shift through the southern US. This will allow temperatures to rebound heading into the start of next week, but it appears central Illinois is headed toward winter. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 544 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Impacts throughout entire TAF period. Ceilings will be the most important, as conditions will be limited to LIFR and IFR. Precip type will vary this morning, with PIA and BMI being the only terminals with RASN, otherwise temps are warm enough along I-72 terminals to keep RA as the predominate. A lull in precip is expected this afternoon around the area, before the sfc Low slides into the Ohio Valley, bringing back widespread precip. As temps drop tonight, expect development of FZRA and SN to occur. Winds will be the final impact, with mostly NNE winds today, sustained to 12-14kts. Then shifting overnight with Low path, from the NNW at 10kts, but adding gusts upwards of 20kts early Thursday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Early season snowfall stat for Peoria...only four 1"+ snowfalls have been observed on or before Oct. 31 since 1905. Highest 3.3" 10/23/1929. Halloween stats... Most snow ------------- Peoria T in 1951 Springfield T in 1993+ previous years Coldest high temperature ------------------------ Peoria 35 in 1917 Springfield 38 in 1951 Most recent 30s high temperature -------------------------------- Peoria 1951 Springfield 1993 Warmest high temperature ------------------------ Peoria 85 in 1950 Springfield 86 in 1950 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for ILZ066>068-071>073. && $$ UPDATE...25 SYNOPSIS...25 SHORT TERM...Baker LONG TERM...Baker AVIATION...Baker CLIMATE...25