585 FXUS61 KBGM 292248 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 648 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Other than a few isolated sprinkles or drizzle at times tonight, high pressure keeps the weather mild and quiet through early Wednesday. A strong low pressure system later this week will bring rain Wednesday night through Thursday night, and gusty winds into Friday. This will lead to a chilly weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 630 PM Update... Quick refresh of temperatures, dewpoints, winds, sky cover otherwise no major changes from earlier update. 330 PM Update... Temperatures continue to come in a couple degrees warmer across the Finger Lakes and northeast through the Syracuse area and western Mohawk Valley, with clear to partly cloudy skies there. Across the Twin Tiers and NE PA, stubborn clouds remain courtesy of south/southeast winds which have brought in some marine moisture. Temperatures are only peaking in the upper 50s to low 60s, and some spotty light drizzle and mist continues across the upslope areas of the Catskills and Poconos. Winds turn light overnight, which will allow for lingering mist across the Catskills and Poconos, and some patchy fog across the rest of our area. Additional clouds will be working in overnight ahead of an approaching wave, which is currently dragging a weak cold front through lower Michigan. This begins to move into the area and weaken overnight into WEdnesday morning, but could still touch off some a light drizzle or some showers across the Finger Lakes and western Mohawk valley. Rain chances will become reinforced Wednesday afternoon and evening as the ridge pushes off the coast, and strengthening southwest flow aloft helps to bring in warmer, more moist air ahead of the next system. With warmer air working in, warmer temperatures would be expected across NE PA, where highs reach generally into the mid 60s. Cloudy skies and better chances for rain showers across the northwestern portions of our forecast area may help to keep temperatures from increasing past the low 60s. Rain chances continue to increase Wednesday night into Thursday with weak ripples moving through our southwest flow. With a warmer airmass and cloudy skies, temperatures should not fall back too far. Lows bottom out in the low to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A rapidly strengthening storm will slide out of the Ohio Valley toward Western NY on Thursday and spread heavy rain and gusty winds across our forecast area. Rain will increase Thursday afternoon as lift increases ahead of an approaching front. Around a half-inch of rain will fall during the afternoon hours on top of a few tenths from the morning, leading to a soggy Halloween night. A strengthening low level jet will usher additional moisture into NY and PA Thursday night, leading to 1.00 to 1.25 inches of rain overnight. A 50+ knot 925 mb jet will shoot across Lake Erie on Friday. Winds will increase through the morning and afternoon hours across our forecast area, with the strongest gusts likely to occur up the lake plain and toward Onondaga and Oneida Counties. Storm total rainfall for the entire event is expected to range from 1.75 to 2.50 inches. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Overall, the long term period looks relatively quiet, but chilly. High pressure will move into the area Friday night and Saturday, bringing partly cloudy skies. With a chilly airmass overhead, lows Friday night will likely be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with highs on Saturday only topping out in the 40s. A weak disturbance may bring some lake enhanced rain and snow showers across portions of CNY, mainly north of the NY Thruway Saturday night into Sunday. Otherwise, generally partly cloudy skies are expected. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably chilly, with lows Saturday and Sunday nights expected to be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Sunday are expected to be in the 40s once again. High pressure moves back in for the beginning of the new work week with highs expected to be mainly in the 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... South/southeast flow which brought in marine moisture is still contributing to MVFR ceilings at ELM, BGM and AVP, though an improvement to VFR is expected at BGM over the next couple of hours as skies clouds look to be breaking up. ELM and AVP, however, should see mainly MVFR ceilings the rest of the afternoon. Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected the rest of the afternoon across ITH, SYR, and RME. Ceilings will be dropping back again overnight with more moisture starting to work into the area ahead of the next system. Expecting MVFR ceilings across RME, SYR, ITH and BGM after 0Z, and ELM and AVP drop to fuel alternate by 6Z. ELM may see IFR ceilings early Wednesday morning, and a slight visibility restriction will be possible at both ELM and AVP as winds turn light. Mainly fuel alternate for Wednesday across all terminals as ceilings hover in the 1500 to 1800 foot range - with the exception of RME and AVP, where MVFR ceilings will be possible. Winds shifting mainly to the south continue to come in at around 5 to 10 kts, with some gusts up to 15 to 20 kts at BGM and ITH this afternoon. Winds turn light and variable overnight and for Wednesday. Outlook... Thursday through Thursday night...Steady moderate to heavy rain Thursday through Thursday night with more widespread restrictions and probably times of low level wind shear as large system moves through the region. Friday...Mainly VFR as showers leave, but strong west winds with gusts 30-40 knots continuing behind powerful cold front. Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Sunday...Mainly VFR, but restrictions will be possible at RME in lake effect rain and snow showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP NEAR TERM...DJN/HLC SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...HLC