866 
FXUS63 KMPX 291746
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1246 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019

Updated for 18Z aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019

Confidence remains high in the current forecast, with no real 
change from the previous forecast. Cool and dry conditions are 
expected today with westerly winds and occasional clouds. Clouds
will increase from the south on Wednesday as cool weather
continues.

A weak cold front will slowly push through the region today. 
There is very little forcing for ascent across the region. The 
main two waves are across the 4-corners region, and into Canada.
For that reason expect continued cool temperatures, with a few
clouds, but no precipitation. On Wednesday the system to the south
will become better organized, so will see some mid level clouds 
increase across the south from it, but an precipitation should
remain to the south across Iowa. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019

Main long term concern is overall upper air pattern favoring cold
regime with potential for northwest flow clipper type/front 
weather systems affecting the region. 

Initially, the upper low associated with the developing surface
low into the Ohio River Valley region, appears to moving far
enough south of the region to remove most PoPs for the Wednesday
night/Thursday period. Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF keep 
deeper moisture and strongest forcing well to the southeast. GEFS
probability plots confirm that trend. We will leave the small 
chance PoP over the far southeast CWA for this period on the 
periphery of the storm system. 

Following the Thursday system, another cold trough drops in 
across the western Great Lakes for Friday, driving a cold front 
eastward. The trough looks deep enough to generate some light 
snow or rain showers across at least the central CWA Friday. We 
held onto the chance PoPs for that region. 

The northwest flow pattern becomes better established by the
weekend with another possible clipper system Sunday/Monday 
period. Colder than normal temperatures will continue for at least
the next 10 days. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019

VFR conditions expected through the period, with high clouds
thinning out this afternoon followed by increasing mid-level 
clouds tomorrow morning. Stratocumulus with bases around 020-030 
across North Dakota and northwest Minnesota may drift over AXN 
this afternoon, but should remain few/sct. West/northwest winds 
around 10 kts this afternoon, with gusts of 15-20 kts expected at 
AXN/RWF. Winds become light overnight and stay below 10 kts 
through tomorrow morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts. 
Fri...MVFR ceilings possible. Chance -RASN. Wind W 10-15 kts. 
Sat...MVFR ceilings possible. Wind NW 10-20 kts. 
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ETA
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...ETA