362 FXUS61 KBGM 291101 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 701 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure keeps the weather mild dry and quiet through early Wednesday, other than sprinkles or drizzle in the Poconos to Catskills at times as well as eventually the Finger Lakes to Mohawk Valley. However, a strong low pressure system later this week will bring rain Wednesday night through Thursday night, and gusty winds into Friday. This will lead to a chilly weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 4 AM Update... Benign and mild conditions will carry the near term period, before things turn more active later this week. High pressure is currently centered over Nova Scotia with a surface ridge extending down the Northeast to Midatlantic Coast. The anticyclonic low level flow around the high has advected in a marine stratus layer which pressed against the Poconos- Catskills earlier tonight. As expected the cloud deck has pressed northwest from there though in shallower form due to downsloping and encountering dry air. At this point almost all of Northeast PA has clouds; the Southern Tier through Mohawk Valley/many areas east of I-81 has clouds with some breaks; the Finger Lakes especially northern portion are clear. For the Finger Lakes to Greater Syracuse, small tags of clouds could reach there a bit this morning, but downsloping and mixing during the day will overall allow more sun and highs in the mid 60s. Points south and east will contend with more clouds so temperatures will be limited to mid 50s-lower 60s for highs. As for precipitation, while mostly dry conditions are still expected through Wednesday; marine moisture will be a bit deeper banking against the Poconos-Catskills. Clouds will be tougher there and patchy drizzle/very light rain will even be possible at times today through early Wednesday. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary will drift towards the Finger Lakes to Syracuse-Mohawk Valley areas tonight into Wednesday while dissolving, perhaps resulting in a few sprinkles. So for different reasons on opposite ends of the area yet lending the same result, there will be plenty of clouds around. This along with return flow from the high and warm southwest flow aloft will hold temperatures up, with upper 40s-lower 50s tonight and generally 60s Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rain showers will be becoming more widespread Wednesday night, especially after 06Z, as a deepening area of low pressure moves towards the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be remaining nearly steady throughout the night, mainly in the lower to mid 50s. This deepening low pressure system will move over the Great Lakes on Thursday, bringing a steady rainfall to the area, especially during the afternoon hours. Total rainfall during the daytime hours on Thursday looks to be in the 0.50-0.75 inch range. Highs on Thursday will likely be in the lower to mid 60s. Then the associated cold front moves through Thursday evening/night, which will bring more steady rain to the area. It will be during this timeframe that we are expecting the most rain, generally an additional inch to inch and a half. Winds will also be increasing during this timeframe, with gusts likely approaching or exceeding 30-40 mph by daybreak. Lows Thursday night will likely be in the lower to mid 40s for the majority of the area. By Friday morning, the steady rain will be tapering off to scattered showers behind the cold front passage. When all is set and done, storm total rainfall will likely range from 1.50 in. to 2.50 in, with the highest amounts east of I-81. The biggest story on Friday will be the windy conditions behind the front, especially during the morning hours, as the pressure gradient tightens between the departing low pressure into eastern Canada and incoming high pressure from the west. Soundings also continue to indicate decent mixing up to around 850 mb. This will result in gusts in the 30-40 mph range, with stronger gusts possible in our westernmost zones - from the central Southern tier, Finger Lakes, and Syracuse/Thruway areas westward towards the Great Lakes. Winds gradually diminish late Friday afternoon and especially Friday evening as high pressure begins to move in. Highs on Friday will likely be in the 40s for the majority of the area, with lower to mid 50s expected across portions of the Poconos region and into Sullivan County, NY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Overall, the long term period looks relatively quiet, but chilly. High pressure will move into the area Friday night and Saturday, bringing partly cloudy skies. With a chilly airmass overhead, lows Friday night will likely be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with highs on Saturday only topping out in the 40s. A weak disturbance may bring some lake enhanced rain and snow showers across portions of CNY, mainly north of the NY Thruway Saturday night into Sunday. Otherwise, generally partly cloudy skies are expected. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably chilly, with lows Saturday and Sunday nights expected to be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Sunday are expected to be in the 40s once again. High pressure moves back in for the beginning of the new work week with highs expected to be mainly in the 40s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... South-southeast flow just off the surface brought in marine moisture and associated shallow deck of clouds most of the terminals early this morning. KSYR is likely to stay VFR today due to downsloping and drying; other terminals will be MVFR for a time this morning and in the case of KAVP-KBGM fuel alternate required level. All terminals will see some improvement late morning into afternoon as mixing occurs, but MVFR ceilings return this evening. Moisture layer will thicken which should bring most terminals into fuel alternate required level overnight. Surface winds variable or light southeast initially, will veer southerly 5-10 knots during the day before diminishing and/or backing tonight. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday night...Some ceiling restrictions Wednesday yet still dry; turning wet Thursday through Thursday night with more widespread restrictions and probably times of low level wind shear as large system moves through the region. Friday...Mainly VFR as showers leave, but strong west winds with gusts 30-40 knots continuing behind powerful cold front. Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...MDP