218 FXUS64 KLZK 290947 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 447 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 .SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Unsettled weather pattern expected over the next few days...Current WV imagery and mesoanalysis indicate a broad longwave trough positioned over the CONUS, with WSWRLY flow aloft over the Natural State. Tue afternoon, steady isentropic ascent and a moistening environment will contribute to scattered rainshowers and a few isolated thunderstorms, beginning in ERN OK and moving into NWRN AR. Rainfall accumulations may be anywhere from 3/4" to 1" in some areas through Wed morning. Wed, a vorticity maximum in the broad H500 longwave trough will manifest in an embedded progressive shortwave in the overall flow. This shortwave will traverse eastward across the Cntrl Plains, providing substantial divergence aloft and aiding in sfc cyclogenesis. As cyclonic flow strengthens, a cold front will approach the region, increasing widespread rain chances throughout the day, with cooler and drier air following behind the boundary. Wed night into Thurs morning, far NWRN AR will likely see temperatures flirting with the freezing point, with some areas even just below freezing. The remainder of the state will still see a chilly start to Halloween with morning temperatures in the 40s. && .LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday An upper low will be in the Plains to begin the long term period with southwest flow east and south of it. With a blocking high pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast, the low will move through the Midwest Thursday afternoon and night. A large upper trough settles into the Plains Friday and moves east next weekend. Northwest flow aloft returns to Arkansas for the weekend. Rain chances will continue early Thursday morning with isolated thunderstorms possible. Rain chances will taper off from west to east during the day as the front moves off to the east and high pressure moves into Arkansas. Gusty winds are expected through the day Thursday. A weak cold front is expected to move through Friday night but no rain is anticipated. With high pressure over the area, dry conditions are expected Saturday through Monday. Cooler temperatures are expected through the long term period. Freezing temperatures will be likely over much of the area Thursday night, and then over the northwest half of the state Friday night and Saturday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 57 50 55 37 / 20 80 70 80 Camden AR 67 60 67 43 / 20 60 80 90 Harrison AR 48 46 49 31 / 40 90 80 70 Hot Springs AR 62 58 61 39 / 20 90 80 80 Little Rock AR 63 56 61 41 / 10 80 80 80 Monticello AR 67 60 68 46 / 10 60 80 90 Mount Ida AR 61 57 61 37 / 30 90 80 70 Mountain Home AR 50 47 50 34 / 30 90 80 70 Newport AR 59 53 56 40 / 10 70 70 80 Pine Bluff AR 64 57 65 43 / 10 70 80 90 Russellville AR 57 55 58 39 / 30 90 80 70 Searcy AR 61 54 58 40 / 10 80 70 80 Stuttgart AR 63 57 62 44 / 10 70 80 90 && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Short Term...GREEN / Long Term...51