361 FXUS61 KCAR 290411 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1211 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region through Tuesday. A cold front will cross the area Wednesday. Low pressure will approach Thursday then cross the region Friday. High pressure will cross the region Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Midnight update: Some light spotty showers and drizzle are showing up on radar and in observations so added isolated showers and patchy drizzle through the overnight period. Otherwise, no major changes to cloud cover or temps. Previous discussion: High pressure centered across the Maritimes will ridge westward across the forecast area through Tuesday. However, forecast soundings indicate abundant low level moisture remaining trapped beneath the subsidence inversion. Thus, expect skies will remain mostly cloudy through Tuesday. Patchy fog is also possible tonight through early Tuesday. High pressure will generally limit precipitation chances through Tuesday. However, could have the slight chance of upslope rain showers across mostly northwest portions of the forecast area later Tuesday afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 30s to around 40 north, to the lower to mid 40s Downeast. High temperatures Tuesday will range from around 50 north, to the lower to mid 50s Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weakening front will be approaching Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Don’t expect much for precip, but slight chance of showers in the north are possible. To the south, southerly return flow will keep WAA in place and some patchy fog will be possible until daybreak. WAA continues as high pressure is reluctant to move too far from the New England coast. This brings fog chances back again Wed night as upper air pattern begins to amplify. Trough will be poised across the Plains with ridging into the Northeast. Low pressure forms at the base of the trough and will begin to lift through the Great Lakes through Thursday. This will introduce the more widespread chance of showers to the CWA into the end of the week. Temperatures will be above average with highs approaching the upper 50s with 60 possible Downeast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Given current guidance, rain is likely to be ongoing Thursday night and Friday. Large storm system will likely move into the Northeast with parent low pressure tracking into Ontario and Quebec. Strong mid-level jet of around 120kts at 500mb will enhance cyclogenesis as divergence aloft permits. Large LLJ appears to form paralleling the coast. Exact placement of storm development will determine orientation and fetch of this jet, but thoughts are winds will be able to mix down given the lapse rates. With strong WAA ongoing Thursday night, temperatures will likely remain steady or fall off very little from daytime highs. These will fall once the front crosses sometime Friday afternoon. Storm will tap into ample moisture with PWATs over 1 inch. Will keep an eye on heavy rain threat, but if pattern holds, New England will be in for a good amount of rain for end of week. Westerly flow behind this system will be ushering in temps closer to normal, with mostly dry conditions towards end of weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR conditions early tonight, lowering to IFR/LIFR levels overnight. IFR/LIFR conditions early Tuesday, then MVFR conditions during the afternoon. Patchy fog tonight through early Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Low clouds and patchy fog/drizzle will lead to MVFR/IFR later Tuesday night through Thursday for all the terminals. LIFR is possible Thursday w/the potential for heavy rainfall. Light SSE winds Tuesday night into Wednesday expected to shift to the WNW across the northern terminals as a cold front slides across the region and then stalls. South of the front, light SSW winds. Thursday night into Friday...Potential for heavy rainfall is there along w/the continuation of IFR/MVFR conditions. Another item to address will be the increasing winds which lead to LLWS concerns. Friday Night...Conditions will dry and trend VFR with breezy conditions from west, 10-15kts gusting to 25kts in the north. Saturday...VFR/MVFR conditions. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas is in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, until midnight. A Small Craft Advisory for Hazardous Seas is in effect for the intracoastal waters until 10 PM. Winds/seas are expected to be below small craft advisory levels on all the waters Tuesday. Visibilities could be reduced in patchy fog tonight through early Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Below SCA conditions for bulk of short term, building quickly through SCA to Gale Friday. Seas will be 2 to 3 feet Wed through Thurs morning with winds around 10-15 kts. Seas begin to build Thursday afternoon into evening, 4-6 feet with winds approaching Gale Friday. Resultant seas near 8-10 feet. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 3 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norcross/MCB Short Term...Cornwell Long Term...Cornwell Aviation...CB/Norcross/Cornwell Marine...CB/Norcross/Cornwell