993 
FXUS64 KAMA 281742
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR, MVFR and IFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF
period. Cigs at the current observations are at MVFR at KDHT/KAMA
and VFR at KGUY. General trends of cigs as we go through the
forecast period will be steady levels at MVFR and at points IFR as
low clouds ahead of our next weather system moves into the region.
On top of low cigs, although not mentioned in TAFs, VCSH
conditions are possible for KDHT/KGUY through 00Z Tuesday. Winds
will be out of the northeast shifting to southeast after 06Z
Tuesday at 5-15 kts.

Meccariello

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...

A positive tilted 500mb shortwave trough currently running from 
Wyoming southwest through the southern tip of Nevada and is progged 
to proceed towards the FA over the next 10 hours or so. Associated 
with this trough will be an upper level jet of around 90 to 100 knots 
just over the middle of the FA by 18Z Monday. Just enough positive 
theta-e advection ahead of the trough will introduce some low level 
moisture for light snow in the western Oklahoma Panhandle and 
surrounding areas. Previously, the snow was expected to start a bit 
earlier, during this shift, now it is looking like it will start 
closer to noon today and will last through the late afternoon. The 
HRRR, RAP and Texas Tech WRF are in fairly good agreement with this 
timing. Due to the limited moisture accumulations will be light with 
less than an inch expected. Highs are expected to be in the mid 40s 
for the far southern and eastern Texas Panhandle, getting closer to 
at or below freezing in the northwest FA. Skies will remain mostly 
cloudy today, with temperatures dropping into the teens and twenties 
overnight into Tuesday morning, as another surge of arctic air moves 
into the area tonight. 

Hoffeditz

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday...

Mixed wintry precipitation is expected Tuesday evening through
Wednesday.  By Wednesday night, precipitation expected to be all
snow.

Strong southwest flow aloft expected across the Panhandles Tuesday
night through Wednesday as a closed low develops within a
positively-tilted trof and moves toward the area.  Strong
isentropic lift and upslope flow will lead to precipitation
production.  Persistent warm nose expected to be present over 
most of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.  This leads to 
much uncertainty regarding precipitation type over much of the 
area. 

Freezing rain, sleet and snow will all be possible beginning
Tuesday evening.  Expect northwest part of the forecast to 
experience all snow for the upcoming event, with a transition to 
all snow slowly spreading southeast through Wednesday morning.  
By Wednesday evening, the column should be cold enough for all 
snow everywhere, just in time for the main trof associated with 
the closed low to pass the area, possibly tapping much drier air, 
with additional precipitation expected to be very light.  At this
time, snow totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across northern 
sections, with up to an inch elsewhere.  Total ice accumulation 
up to around 1/10 inch are expected across the southeast half of 
the Combined Panhandles.  Breezy north and northeast winds during
the event are expected to remain below 20 MPH for the most part, 
reducing the threat for a widespread damaging ice storm.  Dry 
weather expected Thursday and beyond.

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/2