921 FXUS63 KICT 280402 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1102 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2019 ...Updated for Aviation Discussion... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2019 A cold front keeps moving southeast. Cloud cover and cooler air behind this frontal boundary are spreading across the Central Plains. Afternoon high temperatures in central Kansas will be roughly 20 degrees less than Saturday with values in the low to mid 40s. The southeast corner of the state is having a balmy near 70 degree day under sunny skies. Anyone in south central or southeast Kansas should truly take advantage of enjoying these temperatures because a glimpse of winter will stick around for most of the week. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2019 Highlights: 1) Much cooler 2) Winter precipitation Monday and Tuesday Challenge: Chances of precipitation and respective type Mon & Tue In the mid and upper levels, there is a trough from central Canada to the Desert Southwest which will keep its southeast track. There is potential for drizzle in southeast Kansas this evening into Monday morning with an increase in moisture in the lower levels. Chances of precipitation were adjusted to align with the potential for drizzle; they are higher than previously forecast. A wave will move across the Plains on Monday. This will bring the potential for a mix of rain and snow in central Kansas. Light accumulations may occur; however, surface temperatures remain around 50 degrees, and a mix of rain and snow is anticipated during the period of highest chances for those locations thus any snow may not stick around long with this first round. A mix of rain and snow is possible Tuesday evening and night in central and portions of south central Kansas while southeast Kansas remains in the warm sector for rain to be the dominant type. This could change depending on the depth of moisture in the dendritic growth zone. A lack of moisture in that zone means the ice crystals for snow would not be able to form resulting in more of a liquid scenario. Moisture profiles on model soundings will certainly be monitored to assist in determining the type of precipitation. Stay tuned for changes. Cooler air should stay in place and even further infiltrate the rest of Kansas to start the week. High temperatures are expected to be 20 to near 30 degrees below seasonal normals which are in the mid 60s. This cool down has been highlighted for several days, so there are no surprises with highs around 40 degrees for most locations on Monday and Tuesday. Record lows for this time of year are still lower than the previous forecast, but it does appear that record cool high temperature values may be set during this week. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2019 Highlights: 1) Snow and wintry mix Wed-Thu 2) Continued cool Challenges: Chances of winter precip, timing and amounts Wed-Thu The next wave is anticipated to move through Wednesday-Thursday. Chances of precipitation will be at their highest on Wednesday. There are definitely challenges with this wave due to model differences; according the the GFS there is a deeper and further southern solution compared to the ECMWF. Such differences mean potential for variability in the precipitation type. Currently a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain and snow is anticipated due to the current moisture column and temperatures aloft. There could be light snowfall accumulations, but the amounts are dependent on the longevity of snow as the dominant type of precipitation. Based on the latest models, the chances of precipitation were decreased on Thursday afternoon as the low pressure system moves to the northeast. These chances may need to be modified even further depending on the system's speed. At this time, evening Halloween activities shouldn't be impacted by any precipitation. Evening temperatures are forecast to be around freezing though which would mean an additional layer or two to any costume could be needed. Friday into next weekend is anticipated to be quiet especially comparatively to most of the week. Highs are forecast to be in the 40s and then back to the 50s next Sunday. This is definitely a challenging forecast so please stay tuned for updates and changes on precipitation types and the respective impacts. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2019 Greatest potential for low MVFR and possible IFR ceilings will be across southeast Kansas, generally southeast of the Turnpike, later tonight through Monday. Should eventually see some patchy drizzle as well by early Monday across SE KS. The culprit will be lift atop a stalled frontal boundary just southeast of the forecast area, as a storm system approaches from the west. Further northwest across central and north-central Kansas, there should be some light snow and/or flurries Monday afternoon into the early evening hours, as a band of mid-level frontogenesis passes through ahead of the upper trough. At this point thinking any accumulations will remain quite light given fairly dry low-levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 35 40 27 42 / 10 30 20 10 Hutchinson 31 39 23 41 / 10 20 20 10 Newton 32 39 24 41 / 10 40 30 10 ElDorado 35 39 27 42 / 10 40 30 10 Winfield-KWLD 37 41 29 43 / 10 30 30 20 Russell 27 36 20 39 / 0 50 30 0 Great Bend 28 37 20 38 / 0 40 20 0 Salina 30 40 22 42 / 10 40 30 0 McPherson 30 39 22 40 / 10 30 30 10 Coffeyville 43 47 32 45 / 20 60 50 20 Chanute 40 44 31 44 / 30 70 60 20 Iola 40 43 30 43 / 30 70 60 20 Parsons-KPPF 42 46 32 44 / 30 60 60 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VJP SHORT TERM...VJP LONG TERM...VJP AVIATION...ADK