770 FXUS61 KRLX 271052 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 652 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front exits east first thing this morning. Low level moisture trapped beneath lowering inversion into Monday morning, as high pressure builds. Next system midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 650 AM Sunday... Wind advisory canceled a little early. Winds have diminished and, with the cold front crossing the advisory area /the mountains/, the threat for strong wind gusts from the south to southeast is over. Did included mention of gusty west to southwest winds in the wake of the cold front today, to the tune of 25 to 35 mph across the ridges. As of 630 AM Sunday... Showers with an initial wind shift were crossing the central Appalachians early this morning, while the actual cold front lagged behind, crossing the middle Ohio Valley into WV. As of 220 AM Sunday... One final band of showers sweeps across area early this morning, followed by the passage of a cold front. Strong wind gusts in and near the mountains were nearing 45 kts along the higher ridgetops but generally 40 kts or less. The timing of the front is a little faster, and thus the stronger wind gusts winds will diminish a little quicker early this morning. For now, with wind advisory in place looks good. Gusty winds behind the front will not be quite as strong as ahead of it, as low level south to southeast winds to the tune of 70 kts near 825 mb ahead of the front, are replaced by 45 kts from the west to southwest behind the front, and then gradually diminish further during the day today. High pressure builds into the area tonight, but low level moisture will become trapped below the low level frontal inversion that will even become more shallow with time. Low clouds are not likely to mix out much today, leaving a battle between stratus and fog tonight, as the inversion becomes shallow. The low clouds will keep temperatures from recovering much today after falling initially behind the cold front this morning, with readings hovering around 60 lowlands and 50s higher terrain. Central guidance lows tonight on or close. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Quiet and drier weather during the period as high pressure builds into the region for Monday, with areas of dense fog expected early Monday morning. Mild weather during the period, with high temperatures climbing into the 70s for much of the area, as a southwesterly flow takes hold in response to deepening upper trough across intermountain west. A weak front will approach the area on Tuesday, which could create a few sprinkles, but main effects will be clouds. Front will wash out across out Ohio, with next system affecting the area in the long term. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Active weather in the long term period as surface low develops in response to deepening upper trough/low near four corners region. Strong southwesterly flow will aid in high moisture transport into the area during the period, and this combined with strong upper dynamics will result in the possibility of several inches of rain for the area, particularly on Halloween. In addition, gusty winds are expected with this system, and a wind advisory is looking likely for the higher terrain by Friday as the system pulls off to the east and caa takes hold. At this point not too worried about flooding, but this will be a good soaking rain, and creeks and stream vulnerability cannot be completely ruled out at this point. Cooler weather takes hold for the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 630 AM Sunday... Conditions changing rapidly early this morning, as showers associated with a cold front quickly move out of the mountains, and then the lagging cold front crosses. IFR visibility and MVFR to IFR ceilings accompanying the showers in the mountains improve quickly first thing this morning, and there is a brief VFR break east of the Ohio River before the cold front itself crosses first thing this morning. MVFR stratocu quickly fills in in the wake of the cold front this morning, and persists through the day today, and even tonight, as low level moisture gets trapped beneath a lowering frontal inversion. As the inversion becomes shallow tonight, a battle between IFR or worse stratus and fog will ensue overnight tonight. Gusty west to southwest surface flow first thing this morning will gradually diminish during the day today, and then become calm tonight, as high pressure builds over the area. Other than strong south to southwest flow aloft over the mountains early this morning, flow aloft will be moderate west today, and then light and variable tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Stratocu may break up at times later today and tonight. Fog formation is likely to vary overnight tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M H M H M H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR in fog and stratus lingering into Monday morning, and possible in fog and stratus again overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...TRM