274 FXUS61 KCLE 261324 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 924 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north across the region Saturday as deep low pressure moves north into the central Great Lakes region. A cold front will move east across the area Saturday night. High pressure will build northeast into the local area by Sunday night. Another area of low pressure moves across the central Great Lakes on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... No changes with this mid morning update. Rain has reached Mt Vernon/Knox county and will steadily progress northward. There may be some erosion to the front edge with the dry air to overcome, but by mid afternoon most everyone will have had some measurable rain. Still watching the need for an expanded Wind Advisory. Did raise high temperatures today/tonight by just a few degrees. As winds shift to the southeast we should gain a few more degrees although the high for the day may come more this evening. Previous discussion follows. Southwesterly flow have allowed some moisture to stream in and allow high level clouds and some low level clouds to persist. This should clear out for a few hours later this morning. Light and variable winds and strong radiational cooling has allowed for some patchy fog to develop, though visibilities are holding at or above three miles. Surface analysis currently has a post tropical low over southern Louisiana with pressure down to 1000mb. This will be the next storm to impact the region. This low pressure is expected to move north up the Mississippi Valley and into Indiana/Illinois by 00Z Sunday. Widespread rain will accompany this system, with the northern edge of the precipitation shield reaching northern Ohio by 18Z today. QPF totals have been lowered from previous forecasts with widespread 0.75 to 1.00 inches of rain expected. Heaviest rain is expected in northwestern Ohio where as much as 1.50 inches of rain could fall. It is possible that a localized 2.00 inches of rain could be measured but the likelihood of that happening at this point is fairly low. Outside of minor ponding, flooding is not expected, especially given how dry most areas are right now. Winds are also expected to ramp up pretty quickly as low pressure deepens to around 990 mb by 00Z Sunday. The 00Z NAM has a low level jet of 50 to 55 knots at 925 mb between 00Z and 12Z Sunday. We are expecting gusts out the south and southeast of up to 35 knots through late tonight. Winds will be even stronger for downsloping winds in Erie County, PA, for which we have issued a Wind Advisory from 03Z until 13Z. The cold front and associated precipitation move from west to east out the area during the day on Sunday with some brief lingering lake effect showers Sunday afternoon. Precipitation should be completely over by 00Z Monday. Cloud cover and cold air advection should keep day time highs in the 50s.&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure should be building into the region Sunday night and impact the weather into Monday evening. So expect dry conditions Sunday night into at least Monday night. A cold front will approach the area on Tuesday but it looks like the area remains dry until maybe Tuesday night with a few sprinkles attempting to move over the lake and maybe NW Ohio. Temperatures will likely be slightly above seasonal averages in the short term. Highs ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure should be building into the region Sunday night and impact the weather into Monday evening. So expect dry conditions Sunday night into at least Monday night. A cold front will approach the area on Tuesday but it looks like the area remains dry until maybe Tuesday night with a few sprinkles attempting to move over the lake and maybe NW Ohio. Temperatures will likely be slightly above seasonal averages in the short term. Highs ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The stalled frontal boundary will be located somewhere across Ohio on Wednesday and will be the path for the next strong storm system that will impact the region Thursday into Friday. Lots of uncertainty on how soon the rain will arrive through the middle/end of the week. Models are typically too fast ejecting jet energy from a southwestern US trough. More details will come as models get a better handle on the track of this strong storm system. Definitely count on another breezy to windy storm system with occasional showers at some point in the long term, likely closer to the end of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... Patchy and sporadic fog is being observed across the area. Any fog that develops this morning should be completely dissipated by 14Z at the latest. MVFR CIGs also expected to linger at KERI for a few more hours. A post-tropical system approaches from the south later this afternoon. Widespread rain will reach all TAF sites at some point this afternoon with MVFR conditions and eventually IFR expected. The heaviest rain is expected at western TAF sites such as KTOL and KFDY. Winds are currently light and variable at all TAF sites but will quickly ramp up this afternoon and through tonight with sustained southeast winds reaching 15 to 20 knots and gusts up to 35 knots at some locations. Low level wind shear also expected to be an issue at all TAF sites, especially after 00Z, with winds at 2000 feet in excess of 50 knots at its peak. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Saturday night into early Sunday. Non-VFR possible on Wednesday and Thursday with showers. && .MARINE... Strong storm system will approach the central Great Lakes today with increasing east to southeast winds. Small craft conditions are expected to develop across the western Basin by evening. Later shifts will need to monitor water levels across the Western Basin until winds become southerly this evening. Typically a northeast wind will cause the greatest flooding concern from Marblehead to Toledo. So with the east to southeast wind the main lakeshore flooding concern may be directed more into southeastern Michigan. Winds become southwest to west in the wake of a cold front late tonight into Sunday morning with gales possible from east of the Islands to Buffalo. If the gales really do materialize early Sunday morning water levels across the Western Basin will likely make a run at critical levels for safe navigation. Later shifts will need to monitor the potential for a low water advisory. Winds should decrease quickly Sunday evening as high pressure ridges onto the lake. These lighter winds will continue into Monday. Southerly winds increase slightly on Tuesday as a cold front drifts into the central Great Lakes. This boundary should stall south of the lake by Tuesday night and become the path for low pressure later in the week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ001-002. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for LEZ145>148-165>168. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for LEZ149-169. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Sunday for LEZ142>144. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Oudeman/Saunders SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...MM