357 FXUS61 KOKX 261151 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 751 AM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build to the north today, and pass east tonight. Low pressure moving across the Great Lakes on Sunday will send an attendant frontal system toward the area, with a developing secondary low passing over the waters Sunday afternoon. The low will pass east Sunday night, followed by high pressure on Monday. Weak offshore low pressure will linger nearby Monday night into Tuesday, before another frontal system impacts the area Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Other than some patchy fog, mainly across eastern and northeastern sections early this morning, skies have rapidly cleared over the metro area and Long Island, with some lingering mid level clouds. These should give way to mostly clear skies as well, with temps slightly above normal, 60-65. NW winds 10 mph or less to start should veer N this morning, then NE this afternoon as sfc high pressure passes to the north, while an attendant upper ridge builds across. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The upper ridge axis will pass east, with clouds increasing this evening especially western sections, and could even see a few light sprinkles with initial shot of WAA aloft. Better rain chances will follow for late tonight, mainly from NYC west, as mid level forcing begins to arrive and low level WAA increases ahead of a sfc warm front to the south, and in advance of an occluded front to the west. As this front crosses the Appalachians, expect a triple-point low to develop over E PA and NJ late morning to early afternoon, then pass across the area. Increased low level WAA/convergence and LLJ development ahead of this low should lead to a period of heavy rain from late morning into the afternoon, also SE winds gusting up to 35 mph along the coast. Think rainfall will outperform model expectations somewhat, and that a stripe of rainfall between 1.5-2 inches possible across northern NJ and the lower Hudson valley into southern CT, with lesser amts 1-1.5 inches for Long Island and NYC. WAA aloft with LLJ should also help destabilize atmosphere enough for at least a slight chance of thunder throughout, with the better chances across eastern Long Island and SE CT. Expect this system to be fairly quick hitting, with rain coming to an end by Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure briefly follows for Monday with weak offshore low pressure retrograding back toward the area Monday night into Tuesday with light rain/drizzle possible. Large differences then arise with a frontal boundary at the end of the week due the magnitude and progression of an amplifying upper trough across the west. This largely hinges on upstream Pac energy cutting off over the Great Basin mid week. Forecast represents more of an earlier model compromise, with a frontal passage on Friday. Temperatures are generally several degrees above normal during the period, especially with regards to lows due to cloud cover and onshore flow for much of the period. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure builds to the north for today. VFR through today and through 6z tonight. Conditions then worsen, especially after 9z for the city terminals and west with sub VFR conditions arriving. Eastern terminals will see sub VFR conditions closer to 12z on Sunday. Winds have shifted to the northwest and north with the passage of a weak cold front. The winds will go to a more northerly direction late this morning at around 10 kt. The winds eventually shift east for this afternoon and early evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Sunday...Conditions lowering to IFR and LIFR in rain Sunday morning, and remaining through most of Sunday. Winds Sunday SE 15-20kt G25-30kt, gusts of 35 kt possible at the coastal terminals. LLWS likely Sunday, especially for southern and eastern most terminals. .Sunday Night...Improving conditions. Winds shifting to NW and diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. .Monday...VFR. .Tuesday-Wednesday...MVFR to IFR conditions possible with a chance of light rain and drizzle. && .MARINE... Sub SCA conditions will take place for the coastal waters for today and tonight. Seas on the ocean waters will average around 2 ft, and around 1 foot elsewhere during today. However, seas will begin to build quickly late tonight into Sunday morning. During the day on Sunday seas will build to mainly 7 to 9 feet on the ocean, with gale force wind gusts likely for the ocean waters, and possible gale force wind gusts for all of the non-ocean waters. A gale warning is in effect for Sunday and much of Sunday evening on the ocean, with a gale watch for the remaining waters. Winds and seas subside Sunday night into Monday, however, seas on the ocean will linger around 5 ft for much of Monday due to an dominant southerly swell from weakening offshore low pressure. The pressure gradient will be relatively weak across the waters Tuesday into Wednesday, however seas will remain slightly elevated out on the ocean where marginal SCA conditions could exist due to seas around 4 to 5 feet. Seas on the ocean will come down momentarily on to around 3 to 4 feet on Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Rainfall of 1-2 inches expected on Sunday, with minor urban and poor drainage flooding possible. Will have to monitor smaller streams in NE NJ more closely for minor flooding as well, since the bulk of the rain could fall in a 6-8 hour time frame. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Advisory issued for widespread minor coastal flooding Sunday morning high tides, perhaps locally moderate in spots, with potential SE gale developing ahead of an approaching frontal system. The most vulnerable areas for moderate coastal flooding in SE flow will be south shore back bays of Queens and Western Long Island, also S Westchester and coastal SW CT, with potential for 2-4 ft wave action there to add to water levels. Timing of peak winds relative to Sun morning high tides will be critical to water levels reaching moderate. Tidal departures of only 1/4 to 3/4 ft needed in vulnerable spots for minor flooding, and 1 1/2 to 2 ft for moderate flooding with an approaching new moon. Sunday evening astro tides are about 1/2 to 3/4 ft lower than the morning tides. Only low potential for lingering minor coastal flooding exists at that time, as low should pass by quickly enough. Areas of dune erosion could be an issue during the Sunday high tides along the ocean beachfront, with elevated water levels and 6-8 ft breaking surf, as well as for the south facing shores of the twin forks. Multiple cycles of coastal flooding are possible into Mon-Tue as easterly fetch continues south of building high pressure over New England. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is operating at reduced power until further notice. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ009- 010. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ071- 073-078-176-177. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ075-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Gale Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/DW NEAR TERM...JE/Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JE MARINE...JE HYDROLOGY...Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...