256 FXUS64 KLUB 261138 AAA AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 638 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period with winds eventually becoming SW by late morning. Low level jet will ramp up late tonight which may lead to a period of LLWS however, confidence is not high enough yet to include in the TAF. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019/ DISCUSSION... ..Much below normal temperatures will dominate the coming week... Today will be warm, dry, and breezy as a low amplitude progressive upper ridge passes overhead. Temperatures expected near or slightly warmer than normal and will be our warmest day of the coming week. Retained a small area of potential patchy fog this morning over the southwest panhandle near the lingering snow band in the Panhandle and where West Texas Mesonet data is registering at least modest Leaf Wetness values indicating near saturation. Tonight also will be moderately mild with continuing low level southwest flow and backing flow aloft as a fairly vigorous disturbance digs southward out of the northern Rockies into the eastern Great Basin. This disturbance will dig southeast into the plateau region Sunday and shove a cold front southward through the area also on Sunday. Latest runs favor an earlier passage of this front but were holding back the coldest air arrival until Sunday night and Monday. Sunday will see developing northerly breezes and around a 20 degree temperature gradient much of the day with lower 70s possibly holding on in the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains while highs manage only the lower 50s in the southern Panhandle. Sunday highs are certainly in jeopardy and will greatly depend on front timing. Solutions are a bit mixed on how far south low clouds will spread, with a compromise favoring clouds spreading at least through the Panhandle into the northern South Plains. And as noted earlier, these low clouds also may impact warming on Sunday. Cyclonic curvature aloft will increase Monday and continue much of the week ahead. The initial disturbance over the plateau will eject fairly weakly late Monday just north of the area and may be accompanied by low precipitaion chances mainly over the Panhandle. Lower atmosphere will gradually moisten with the cold low level northeast to easterly flow Monday night and Tuesday and may lead to light showers or drizzle by early Tuesday but majority of solutions were dry through this period thus official forecast also remains dry. Tuesday night into Wednesday will see a stronger low pressure system of Arctic origins digging southward through the Rockies. Once again, all signs favor the slow and strong ECMWF/Canadian depiction. This will push much colder air southward through the area Wednesday and likely will be accompanied by shallow saturation and probably at least isentropic lift. Large scale lift with this storm appears likely remaining just north of the area although there is a chance we could see a period of polar jet related lift passing through the area Wednesday night depending on storm track, but this is unclear. We will look this deeper into this with later forecasts. We have extended the mention of some combination of light drizzle, freezing drizzle, and snow through Wednesday. Although it currently doesn't appear accumulations will become significant, we will add a mention of wintry conditions to the Hazardous Weather Outlook; freezing drizzle needs only small amounts to have significant travel impacts - and should that jet lift prove valid we may be more prone to accumulations. This storm will pass slowly to the east early Thursday eventually leading to mayhem in the midwest as an early season winter storm slams that area, while our area should slowly recover late in the week with lingering below normal temperatures. Another weak front seems plausible by next weekend with the more amplified ECMWF still favored. But it should be dry the first day or two of November. RMcQueen && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 58/99/99