399 FXUS64 KMEG 251023 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 523 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 .DISCUSSION... Early morning GOES water vapor imagery showed a positive-tilted closed upper low over the TX panhandle. A baroclinic leaf signature appeared to be forming between the upper low and a 150KT upper jet over the mid-MS River valley. For today, the closed upper low will deepen and become neutrally- tilted as it lifts east through the Red River valley. Over the Midsouth, light rain will give way to moderate and occasionally heavy rain this evening and overnight, associated with an ejecting lead shortwave. A surface low will track up the MS River overnight, under diffluent flow east of the upper low. With limited instability, rainfall rates shouldn't be too impressive. But given precipitable water values near 2 inches and the persistence of an elevated warm conveyor belt, several hours of moderate rain may cause a rise in creeks and some of the smaller, more responsive rivers tonight. Antecedent soil moisture has recovered to normal across most of the Midsouth, with some some slightly dry soils near the MO bootheel and far northwest TN. Model consensus event total rainfall has shifted west slightly, along the MS River, where 2 to 4 inches amounts appear likely, with localized 5 inch amounts possible. By Saturday morning, the axis of moderate to heavy rain will lift into northwest TN, before exiting toward midday or early afternoon, having been overtaken by a midlevel dry slot. The GFS remained the most progressive the models. The official forecast represents and Canadian/ECMWF/GFS blend. Following dry and seasonal weather Sunday and Monday, medium range model consensus begins to fade with the progressive weather pattern. All depict significant height falls from the southern Canadian prairies into the Dakotas on Tuesday. But differences arise in the depiction of additional shortwave energy dropping south through the Rockies. The GFS was much weaker with this shortwave energy, lending a more progressive solution to the longwave trof. The Canadian and ECMWF models carved out a secondary upper low over the central Rockies by midweek, resulting in persistent unsettled southwest flow through the Midsouth. Official forecast derived from model blends depicts a return of midweek rain chances, with average to below average forecast confidence. PWB && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF cycle VFR conditions will continue into the early morning hours. Lower clouds will start to move into the region by mid-morning with most locations have IFR ceilings by Friday afternoon. Rain will begin to move into the Mid-South by late Friday morning and continue through much of the afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be mainly from the northeast at 5 to 10 knots overnight before increasing to 10 to 15 knots by Friday afternoon. ARS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Saturday afternoon for Crittenden-Lee AR-Phillips-St. Francis. MO...None. MS...Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Saturday afternoon for Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Lafayette- Marshall-Panola-Pontotoc-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-Tunica- Yalobusha. TN...Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Saturday afternoon for Shelby. && $$