036 FXUS63 KFGF 250012 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 712 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 711 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 Adjustments made to sky cover to catch timing of mid level stratus deck filling in and moving eastward. Otherwise, forecast is on track this evening. Temps overnight will be complicated by this cloud deck due to insulation, so will need to monitor through late evening before considering adjusting lows upwards. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 Warm air advection and how associated cloud cover affects temps will be the main concern for the short term. SW winds 5 to 10 mph will persist with some cloud cover keeping temps around 30 overnight. Ahead of developing low pressure system in the Canadian prairies an axis of warmer 925mb temps lifts into the area. A rise of about 10C at 925MB from this afternoon will allow temps to reach into the low to mid 50s, possibly for the last time this year, with some breeze on 10 to 20 mph SW winds. Thermal axis and strong mixing will keep temps up ahead of the cold front Friday night lows around 40. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 Cold and persistently elevated winds more representative of early winter will dominate the long term period. Saturday will note the end of fall-like temperatures into the 40s and 50s ahead of a passing cold front, albeit lesser apparent temperatures due to the gusty southeast winds ahead of the front. Behind the front will gusty northwest winds, decreasing temps, and the chance of rain and brief light snow. Brief, light snow chances linger into Sunday. The brief ridging aloft over the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday will break down to developing and continued troughing. This will promote cold air masses to break southward through the base of the trough, represented by several cold fronts with accompanying parent mid level impulses. This will reinforce cold temperatures marked by highs in the 20s and 30s with lows in the teens to twenties Monday through Thursday. Behind each cold front brings breezy northwest winds. This with the colder temperatures will promote wind chill values into the teens Tuesday through Thursday, possibly further. This is unusually early to see values this low for this time of year. Cold temperatures may have an impact to saturated soils and excess shallow water causing them to freeze, at least close to the surface. Monday's wave will promote snow production. At the moment, snow is expected to be light. However, snow chances remain elevated Monday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 711 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 VFR still expected to prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN, with mid level stratus 4-9 KFT AGL moving west to east across the region through the evening/overnight. Light southerly winds will increase Friday morning to 10-13kt range mainly along and west of the Red River Valley in eastern ND. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 Flooding continues for many locations across the Red River basin. Along the mainstem Red, moderate flooding continues downstream of Grand Forks. The main flood wave is currently nearing Drayton with Pembina expected to crest in the next few days. Elsewhere along the Red, river levels are receding save for Fargo which will some additional minor rises. Other than the Red, the Wild Rice (ND) and lower Sheyenne continue to experience minor to moderate flooding (with major flood levels still possible at the West Fargo Diversion). Rises are still likely through the weekend and possibly into early next week before these areas start to see things level off and/or begin to recede. There are no ongoing or forecast flood concerns along the MN tributaries as Hallock on the Two Rivers River should fall below flood stage in the coming days. Generally quiet and dry weather will persist into early next week allowing flooding concerns to slowly subside for the time being. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...CJ AVIATION...DJR HYDROLOGY...Lee