466 
FXUS66 KHNX 250006 AAA
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE
National Weather Service Hanford CA 
500 PM PDT Thu Oct 24 2019

.Update...Updated Air Quality Issues Section.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather will continue throughout the 
central California interior for the next several days. 
Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures can be expected
through Saturday. Sunday through Wednesday will be much
cooler across the district. Warmer weather could return
later in the week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...Sunny skies and balmy temperatures are the
recurring highlight of this afternoon's weather across 
central California. Even the beaches are cloud-free and much 
warmer than normal, thanks to a robust offshore flow. (As of
this writing, automated weather stations in Monterey and Santa 
Maria are reporting a temperature of 90 degrees!) The downside
of this offshore flow pattern are the gusty winds, very low 
humidities and extreme fire danger in the Kern county mountains 
today. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for this region 
into Friday evening. Specific details are provided in the Fire 
Weather section of this discussion.

In the broader picture, a strong ridge of high pressure will
keep central California firmly in its grip during the next
24 to 36 hours. Although the ridge will begin to retrograde 
westward early this weekend, it will hang on long enough to 
bring a repeat of unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures 
Saturday. Friday will be about as warm as today, if not 
slightly warmer, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 
80s in the San Joaquin Valley. Thermometer readings could top 
the ninety degree mark in the warmest spots of the valley. 
(The record high temperature in Fresno Friday is 91 degrees 
which last occurred on October 25th in 1966.)

A significantly cooler change in the pattern will begin Sunday 
and continue through Tuesday as an upper level trough drops into 
the Great Basin. A dry cold front associated with this system will
encroach from the north Saturday. As the front approaches, winds
will briefly become onshore Saturday afternoon and this will 
bring warmer air into the Kern county desert where temperatures 
will climb into the mid 80s. The cold front will sweep southward 
through our CWA late Saturday night and winds will trend offshore 
again Sunday. A northerly flow directly out of western Canada will
occur on the backside of this upper level trough Sunday through 
Monday and bring a very dry and substantially cooler air mass, 
perhaps the coldest since last Spring, into the central California
interior. Temperatures could bottom out below freezing in the 
Kern county desert Monday night and Tuesday night as a result. In 
the San Joaquin Valley, minimum temperatures as low as the mid 30s
could occur in the normally coldest locations Monday morning and 
Tuesday morning. Otherwise, afternoon temperatures in the wake of 
this Canadian cold front will be a good 8 to 15 degrees lower 
Sunday compared to Saturday, especially in the Kern county desert 
and over much of the Sierra which will act as a barrier to much 
colder air that invades the Rockies and the Plains states early 
next week. 

During the mid to later part of next week, the ridge of high 
pressure over the Eastern Pacific will flex its muscle. When it 
builds back into the Golden State, it will likely bring a return 
of above normal high temperatures to the district by next 
Thursday. Otherwise, we can confidently say that our weather 
pattern will remain bone dry for the rest of this month and 
probably into the first week of November.

&&

.AVIATION...Local MVFR visibility in mist/haze in the San Joaquin
Valley between 13Z and 17Z Thursday. Additionally, local wind 
gusts to 50 mph are likely in east to west oriented canyons of 
Kern county between through 12z Friday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail across the central CA interior during the next 24 
hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag conditions will prevail over the Kern
county mountains and over much of the Sequoia National Forest in
southeastern Tulare county through at least Friday morning. 
During this time, the combination of gusty easterly winds, very
low relative humidities and extremely dry fuels could quickly
ignite new fires and contribute to the rapid growth and spread
of new fires. Although winds will likely diminish Friday 
afternoon, humidities will be slow to recover until Friday 
evening, by which time the threat of red flag conditions will
end.  

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT Friday for CAZ299-595>597.

&&

$$

synopsis...Durfee
public...Durfee
aviation....BSO
fire weather...Durfee

weather.gov/hanford