198 FXUS63 KICT 242118 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS 404 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 Early this afternoon an upper level trough was located from the northern Plains, south-southwest into NM. Ascent ahead of this trough combined with weak isentropic lift was causing moderate to heavy snow across southeast CO and northeast NM. Light snow and rain was located across southwest KS into the TX PNHDL. Low-level CAA has kept temperatures in the mid to upper 40s across the forecast area. Weak isentropic lift north of the front continued to cause areas of light rain across southeast KS this afternoon. Tonight, the southern sections of the upper trough across southern CO and NM will dig southeast across west TX and along the Red River Valley of OK/TX. As the H5 trough digs southeast will become a closed upper low across southwest OK. There may be enough weak frontogenetical forcing within the deformation zone north of the upper low combined with weak isentropic lift to allow the light rain to expand northwest across south central KS this evening. As the upper low digs into north central TX, the stronger ascent will shift southeast of the forecast area and the light rain will slowly shift back to the southeast across far southeast KS late Tonight. 850mb and surface temperatures will remain above freezing, thus the precipitation will remain in the form of rain. Overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper 20s across the northwest counties as skies clear after midnight. The southeast counties will keep cloud cover and rain chances through the night and overnight low will only drop down to around 40. Friday, the upper low will be centered across north central TX. There may be a few lingering showers across extreme southeast KS during the morning hours but these should move southeast of the area during the late morning hours. The afternoon hours look dry, with more insolation across the northern and central counties of the forecast area. Highs across much of the area will be in the mid 50s. The southeast counties may keep the cloud cover through the day, so highs will be a bit cooler with lower 50s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday) Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 Friday night through Saturday night, the upper low across north central TX will lift northeast across eastern OK into southern MO. Southeast KS may see light rain developing Saturday morning into Saturday evening as weak frontogenetical forcing develops within the mid level deformation zone to the north and northwest side of the upper low. Vertical temperature profiles will be above freezing, so the precipitation will fall in the form of rain. The rain will end after midnight, Saturday night, as the upper low lifts northeast across the mid MS River Valley. An upper level trough will dig southeast from the Pacific Northwest across the western US. Highs on Saturday will warm into the upper 50s southeast to mid 60s northwest. Sunday through Sunday night, The upper level trough across the western US will amplify as if digs into the the southwestern US. A northern branch of the H5 trough will shear off and move east across the northern Plains. Low-level CAA across the northern Plains Saturday afternoon/evening will cause a surface front to move southward across the forecast area Sunday morning. North-northeast surface winds will only allow highs to reach the upper 40s across the northwest counties to mid to upper 50s across the southern and eastern counties. Monday through Tuesday, the low-level CAA will increase along with cloud cover ahead of the advancing upper level trough through the day, differential cyclonic vorticity advection ahead of the H5 trough will increase and light rain will develop as larger scale ascent increases across southern KS. I suppose if temperatures are cool enough in the morning there may be a slight chance for a rain snow mix in the morning, which will turn to light rain as surface temperatures warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Both the GFS and ECMWF do not show much QPF Monday morning. Late Monday afternoon 850mb temperatures will drop below freezing and as surface temperatures fall into the lower to mid 30s the light rain will mix with and change over to snow Monday night The southeast counties may only mix with snow late Monday night before the rain-snow mix ends early Tuesday morning. The northern and western counties of the forecast area may see a light accumulation of snow. May be a dusting up to an inch of snow to the northwest of a Kingman to Newton to Lincolnville line.. A second H5 trough will dig southeast from southern Canada across the central Rockies. The rest of the week, the 12Z run of the ECMWF shows the next upper level trough digging southeast across the central Rockies, then amplifying into a closed upper level low, then shifting east across the Plains. This potentially could bring accumulating snowfall across the the northern forecast area Wednesday into Thursday. The forecast grids were weighted more towards the drier GFS, which has a broader upper trough over the plains with all the stronger ascent across the east central US. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2019 For the 18Z TAFS, a batch of rain will primarily impact KCNU this afternoon and overnight. Have also included mention VCSH for KICT with lower chances this afternoon. VFR CIGS and visibilities are expected at all terminals throughout the TAF period, with the exception of KCNU where MVFR CIGS are expected with stratiform rain through tonight. Rain will then move east of the area late in the period. Otherwise, for the central KS terminals, winds are expected to shift from a NNE direction today to a southerly direction by the end of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 47 36 53 34 / 40 40 0 10 Hutchinson 47 31 54 31 / 10 20 0 0 Newton 47 33 52 33 / 20 30 0 0 ElDorado 46 37 52 36 / 50 60 0 10 Winfield-KWLD 46 38 52 36 / 70 70 20 20 Russell 48 28 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 47 28 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 48 30 54 32 / 0 0 0 0 McPherson 47 31 54 31 / 10 10 0 0 Coffeyville 50 41 50 38 / 90 90 60 40 Chanute 47 40 51 38 / 70 80 40 30 Iola 47 39 51 37 / 70 70 30 30 Parsons-KPPF 48 41 50 39 / 90 90 50 30 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gargan LONG TERM...Gargan AVIATION...Teefey