655 FXUS64 KLUB 241539 AAA AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1039 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 .UPDATE... Main update this go around was to increase PoPs in the extreme southern Texas Panhandle where very light precipitation was already beginning to fall. Forecast snowfall amounts at this time have not changed. A deep band of frontogensis is still expected to set up between 700mb to 550mb oriented from southwest to northeast. A fair amount of instability will exist above this frontogenetical layer indicated by negative EPV values which will likely set up some narrow banding as previously discussed. At the moment, dew point depressions were anywhere between 5 and 10 across the southern Texas Panhandle. This will only act to delay the onset of moderate to heavy precipitation. Wet bulb effects are expected to rapidly bring the depressions to less than 5 degrees. The best precipitation chances still appear to be along the US Highway 60 corridor from Friona to northeast of Amarillo. Although we are holding on to the 1-3 inch forecast total, some models are depicting between 4 and 6 inches around the Summerfield/Hereford area. This is not entirely out of the realm of possibilities as indicated by the probabilistic snow graphics. Very little to no snow is expected in the Lubbock area. The peak will likely be in the middle of the afternoon through early evening. Precipitation will then taper off from west to east late this evening. && DISCUSSION... Our first taste of winter occurs today with blustery weather that will include cold rain and snow for much of the FA. Long wave upper trough will continue to swing through the region today. The associated Canadian cold front moved through yesterday and as forecast the colder air has started to descend on the region early this morning. As a result high temps will be around 30 degrees below normal and most places will see a midnight high temperature. As the morning progresses and the cold air arrives winds will become gusty and precipitation chances will increase area wide. Isentropic lift along the front will occur first resulting in most areas seeing drizzle around day break. As the upper support arrives later this morning the column of air will cool and mid-level lapse rates will become steeper resulting in a stronger band of precipitation developing and more widespread showers with the rain switching to snow across our northwestern zones. At this point it appears that the snow and rain/snow mix will hold on through much of the day with accumulations of 1-3 inches possible across the western Southern Texas Panhandle. Thus, we have decided to issue a winter weather advisory to highlight this event across the aforementioned zones. We will utilize an SPS to highlight the potential for a rain snow mix today and very cold temperatures tonight across the rest of the CWA. Impacts should remain at a minimum with this event but, localized blowing snow could be possible along with minor refreezing/icing issues Thursday night into Friday morning. During this same time frame low temperatures will drop into the 20s and 30s across the FA. This mean that some areas are at risk of seeing their first hard freeze of the season. This again will be highlighted with an SPS. But, as with any hard freeze, outdoor plants and animals will be at risk and should be covered or brought indoors. The upper low will move east fairly quickly and be out of the region by Friday leaving behind clear skies and another cool day and cold night Friday. This will be followed by a weak upper level ridge over the weekend resulting in an oscillation of temperatures back to the 70s. Models diverge past Monday with the GFS showing the next upper trough driving a cold front through the area early Monday morning followed by a second front on Wednesday. The ECMWF however washes out the first front but does develop the second front on Wednesday. For now we will follow the previous forecast and the Blends and keep the forecast dry with cooler than normal temperatures as we await some clarity. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for TXZ021>024. && $$ 01