462 FXUS62 KMHX 240734 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 334 AM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west today then slide offshore tonight and Friday. Another area of high pressure will build north of the region Saturday then slide offshore Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. The front will impact the area into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 230 AM Thu...After some localized shallow fog burns off will have another very nice day as high pres becomes centered just N of the region. Will likely see some SCU develop with onshore flow but still expect mostly sunny skies with highs similar to yesterday...mainly 70 to 75. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM Thu...High pressure grad slides offshore just to the N. Mdls show a little more moisture over the area, mainly aob 5000 feet and at upper lvls. Expect PC skies with temps a bit milder with lows cpl degrees either side of 50 inland to upr 50s/around 60 beaches. Given more clouds will hold off adding any patchy fog to fcst. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM Thu...A dry start to the long term forecast and the weekend will start to turn sour by Sunday as a frontal system approaches from the west. Slight timing differences remain in the models with the GFS illustrating its typical faster solution followed by the ECMWF about 6 hours later. The parent surface low with this system races off to the north very quickly and weakens as it does so, entering Quebec by the time showers from the associated front reach eastern NC. While there will be some weak instability, the jet dynamics are weakening and well off to the north and vorticity maxima are scarce. Therefore will keep precipitation to just showers at this time with models only showing QPF of about a tenth of an inch. As we move into early next week, the ECMWF continues to play catchup to the GFS and the continental surface high it was showing over the Ohio Valley 24 hours ago is now gone, keeping the Gulf of Mexico open and streaming moisture into the Deep South and the Carolinas. This will keep the forecast wet through the long term but the GFS suggests it could begin to clear by Wednesday. Will maintain slight chance pops as forecast confidence is completely in the tank by then. Temperatures will remain very mild through the period with highs in the 70s every day and any frontal passages doing very little to change the airmass. Lows will generally be in the 60s inland to upper 60s to near 70 on the coast with the exception of Friday night which will be a category or two colder across the board. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 1220 AM Thu...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with high pressure ridging in from the west. There will likely be some localized shallow steam fog developing thru daybreak as temps reach dewpts. Best chcs will prob be at PGV/EWN due to nearby rivers. Any fog that forms will dissipate rapidly after sunrise with cont mclr skies. Mdls show gradual increase in moisture tonight with some sct clouds expected that may limit fog threat after 06Z. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 330 AM Wednesday...VFR conditions are likely through Friday night before clouds increase on Saturday. Late in the day on Saturday could see some sub-VFR ceilings begin to filter in from south to north. The best chances for adverse aviation conditions will be on Sunday with an approaching cold front and associated low pressure system with continued precipitation chances into early next week. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tonight/... As of 230 AM Thu...Good boating conditions this period as high pres builds just to the N today and slides offshore tonight. Winds will be mainly NE 5 to 15 kts. Seas will drop to 2 to 3 feet this morn and stay in that range thru tonight. Long Term /Friday through Monday/... As of 330 AM Thursday...Generally docile conditions for the long term with broad high pressure building into the region from the west. Winds will relax and seas will be around 2-3 feet through Saturday before increasing to 3-5 feet on Sunday as the frontal system approaches the area. Seas will back off again to 2-4 feet on Monday. No SCA conditions expected. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...RTE AVIATION...RTE/RF MARINE...RTE/RF