276 FXUS65 KABQ 231129 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 529 AM MDT Wed Oct 23 2019 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE Just a few high clouds are expected today with VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will turn moderately breezy in the afternoon, primarily in northwestern parts of the state and also over some high terrain areas of central New Mexico. Winds will shift east northeast in the northeastern plains today with a more pronounced and gusty wind shift arriving this evening into early Thursday as a stout cold front arrives. Rain and snow will accompany the front with deteriorating visibility/ceilings tonight in north central to northeastern New Mexico where IFR conditions are expected. Remaining areas will stay mostly dry, but gusty winds will be possible as the front arrives. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...215 AM MDT Wed Oct 23 2019... ...FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... .SYNOPSIS... Enjoy one more day of pleasant weather over New Mexico today as an early winter visit arrives through eastern New Mexico late tonight through Thursday. Snowfall will begin at Raton Pass late this evening, spreading through the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and northeastern New Mexico through Thursday morning. Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 9 inches are forecast over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains with higher amounts of up to a foot likely impacting travel through Raton Pass. Lesser amounts of 1 to 4 inches will also likely impact travel along I-25 from Las Vegas to Raton. Very cold temperatures with struggle to reach the 40s through the east. Meanwhile, central and western New Mexico to include Santa Fe and Albuquerque will likely miss out on much if any precipitation and only see a drop in temperatures Thursday. A warming trend returns Friday to at least Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Today...One more day of fairly tranquil weather with relaxing NW flow aloft. Daytime highs will climb to near normal over northern NM and several degrees above normal south of I-40. The leading edge of a backdoor front will bring a NE wind shift into far northeastern NM, but the switch to wintry weather won't arrive until tonight. Tonight/Thursday...The season's first significant winter storm system will arrive tonight into northeastern NM, first via a reinforcing backdoor cold front bringing a sharp drop in temperatures overnight. As an upper-level trough digs down the inter-mountain west, snowfall will begin at the Raton Pass area late tonight increasing in intensity into Thursday morning. As the trough axis reaches over the San Juan Mtn Range sfc upslope flow behind the backdoor cold front will interact with the forcing aloft to drive snow over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains after midnight through Thursday morning. Snowfall accumulations here will range from 3"-6" over the southern Sangres and 4"-9" over the northern Sangres, with locally higher amounts up to a foot over Raton Pass. Lesser amounts of 1"-4" will likely impact travel along the I-25 corridor from Las Vegas to Raton. The trough axis will move through central NM during the day as the backdoor cold front will dive through eastern NM and to or just west of the central mtn chain. An east canyon gap wind is likely at Santa Fe and ABQ but any wintry precipitation will be hard to come by any further south than I-40. A light dusting to an inch of snow is possible over the Jemez and Tusas Mtns as the stronger backdoor push just isn't expected to get that far west. Winter Weather Advisories will be issued for the Sangres and adjacent high plains and Union County with a Winter Storm Warning for Raton Pass and Johnson/Bartlett Mesas. Temperature wise, daytime highs across eastern NM will struggle to reach 40 with long-duration sub-freezing temperatures likely for Raton to Capulin/Des Moines starting Wed night and going until Fri morning. 700mb Ts will be well below freezing -6 to -9C even during the day suggesting evaporative cooling. So although daytime highs will reach above 40 through the Canadian River Basin through eastern San Miguel and Quay Counties and areas south of there, precipitation will likely be a rain-snow mix favoring snow melting on the ground. Long Range...As the ECMWF has trended to a more progressive track for the Thursday system and the GFS continues to hold the system as a trough through the TX/OK Panhandles, have elected to go with an earlier ending for precipitation over eastern NM Fri morning. Morning lows Fri will likely be the coldest of the forecast period with near zero possible at Angel Fire and single digits at Raton to Springer. Places that haven't yet seen their season-ending freeze (parts of ABQ, Socorro, and Roswell) will likely see it Fri morning. Temperatures trend back up through at least Sat, but then models go right back into inconsistencies by Sun. The GFS shows another quick- hitting storm with similar yet less extensive impacts on Sun, while the ECMWF continues to show a more amplified jet pattern and develops the trough into a closed low that moves over CA and delays the onset of any sensible weather impacts until Mon. Needless to say, Sun and beyond looks up in the air for now. 24/RJH && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry and warmer conditions are forecast today with high temperatures meeting or slightly exceeding normal and afternoon humidity plummeting to near 15 percent or less in most of the forecast area. Moderately breezy conditions will develop this afternoon with the strongest gusts expected in northwestern to central high terrain areas, but critical wind speeds are not anticipated. It should also be noted, a wind shift will also be observed in northeastern NM ahead of a stronger cold front. Overall smoke ventilation rates will improve slightly today, but it will still be mid to late afternoon before mixing heights rise high enough to support decent dispersion. Into tonight, a sudden pattern shift will begin unfolding and this will carry over to Thursday as the deep trough of low pressure aloft sags southeastward with an unseasonably strong cold front associated with it. While windy conditions will cover much of eastern NM as the cold front invades Thursday morning, a gusty canyon/gap wind will also surge into central valleys. Despite the windy conditions, the cooler air statewide and precipitation over north central to northeastern NM will alleviate any threat for critical fire weather conditions. However, very low afternoon RH is still anticipated in far western zones Thursday afternoon. Friday will be characterized by more tranquil conditions, but chilly temperatures. And just as temperatures begin to rebound Saturday, another cold front is forecast to impact NM Sunday into Monday. Gusty winds could briefly precede and accompany the Sunday front, but otherwise no blatant critical fire weather threats appear. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Thursday for the following zones... NMZ213>215-228>230. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Thursday for the following zones... NMZ227. && $$