544 FXUS61 KBGM 230142 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 942 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move east of the region tonight with rain ending from west to east. High pressure will then build into the region leading to a dry period on Thursday. Another cold front will then move through the region on Friday with our next chance of showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 930PM Update... Continued to pull back on pops from west to east with this update. Most of the lingering rain is constrained to the eastern half of our forecast area, with a few lingering showers across the Finger Lakes and western Souther Tier. Any mention of moderate rainfall rates has also been removed as rain is turning lighter. Skies are turning clear across our western zones at the moment, but with additional showers already re- developing in far western NY, will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy through the night. After midnight and heading towards sunrise, any lingering shower activity will increasingly migrate northwards, as this turns into a lake-effect shower scenario in the wake of the passing cold front. As for temperatures, still expecting lows generally in the mid 40s. While some patchy fog cannot be ruled out given this moist environment, it is hard to justify emphasizing this in the forecast with lingering cloudiness and SW winds coming in at at least 5mph across most of the area. Previous discussion continues below. Tomorrow and Tomorrow night: With the west and northwest winds bringing in additional moisture off of Lake Ontario clouds will be more persistent in NY. More in the way of clearing should take place in PA. With the cooler airmass, Highs should only get into the 50's for most of the region. Modeled soundings are showing the potential for some 20 mph winds to make it down to the surface in the afternoon. More in the way of clearing should occur tomorrow night as high pressure builds into the region with lows in the 30's. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 200 PM UPDATE... Period features ridging off the SE coast and a cold front trying to push east out of the Great Lakes. Ridge slows the progress of the front as ripples of low pressure race to the northeast in the southwest flow aloft. The chance for showers increases through the period as the front drops into the area, with the highest chance over the western and northern zones. There are model forecast differences in the position and timing of the front, which of course is typical when the surface front lies parallel to the upper flow. Overall though any rain that falls will be relatively light as the systems moving through are weak. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 200 PM UPDATE... Little change to the extended. Did make some adjustments to the weather grids to remove the frost from the period as the growing season has ended. Also removed the fog for now as that is a bit too much detail that far out. Previous discussion continues below. The long term will begin with an active weather pattern as an upper level wave spreads showers into the northwestern third of our forecast area. Northwesterly flow behind the wave will cause lake enhanced rain showers Friday night into early Saturday before a dome of high pressure slides across NY and PA and cuts off the rain showers Saturday afternoon. A cyclone rotating into MI will cause isolated shower activity over our forecast area for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mainly MVFR ceilings and visibilities with periods of rain. Ceilings lift to VFR through the night but lower confidence exists with the timing that the ceilings lift. Right now it appears most sites will have lifting ceilings during the overnight hours. Winds gradually becoming more west to northwest throughout the TAF period. A few wind gusts Wednesday afternoon could reach 20 knots. Outlook... Wednesday night through Friday morning...mainly VFR with IFR valley fog possible in the early mornings. Friday through Sunday...Possible restrictions in showers. Highest chances for showers Friday and Sunday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...HLC/MWG SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM/DJP AVIATION...MWG