863 FXUS65 KABQ 222124 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 324 PM MDT Tue Oct 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A slight warming trend will continue into Wednesday, before an early season snowfall event will arrive to northeastern New Mexico Wednesday night into Thursday. The heaviest accumulations are expected from Raton Pass to Capulin, where upwards of 8 to 12 inches may occur along Johnson/Bartlett Mesas. Snowpacked and icy roads are the main concern for travel along I-25 through Raton Pass. Elsewhere, overnight temperatures Thursday into Friday may be near to below freezing values across much of the state. Temperatures warm up into the weekend, before yet another backdoor cold front impacts the northeast Saturday into Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Relaxed, northwest flow aloft will lend itself for today and tomorrow to be more of transition days - a warming trend into Wednesday to near to above normal values and some locally breezy winds. But, the main story of the week is the early winter system to impact the state Wednesday night into Thursday, as a backdoor cold front approaches the northeast. Snowfall amounts may range from 3 to 6 across Raton Pass to upwards of 8 to 12 inches near Raton Pass and Johnson/Bartlett Mesas, with locally higher amounts possible. The heaviest snowfall amounts will fall during the early morning hours on Thursday. For reference, Red River usually receives its first snowfall on or around October 15th, November 10th for Raton, and November 15th for Red River. For the rest of the state, the system will be mainly dry. Daytime highs for Thursday will plunge 10 to 30 degrees below normal, with the coldest temperatures across the northeast. Areas from Raton to Capulin may stay at or below freezing for 24-36 hours beginning Wednesday night. However, there is still some uncertainty regarding how deep the low will go. The GFS/NAM are the "drier" solutions, having snowfall exiting quickly by Thursday afternoon. The ECMWF and Canadian have the low turning into a closed low and having precipitation linger into Friday and Saturday along the central mountain chain. The latest runs now have the latter two models further west, but this could still mean the difference between some heavier snowfall accumulations. By Friday, temperatures warm sightly, but still 5 to 15 degrees below normal across most areas, as a weak ridge of high pressure begins to build over the state. The early part of the weekend looks to be warmer with some light breezes and sunshine. But, the pattern doesn't continue for long, as another backdoor cold front Saturday into Sunday will cool temperatures across the northeast and keep the chance for precip in the forecast. There is some uncertainty going into mid-week, but stay tuned for the latest snowfall amounts for Thursday's system. 31 && .FIRE WEATHER... Under dry northwest flow aloft, temperatures will warm a few to around 5 degrees on Wednesday afternoon compared to this afternoon. Wind speeds should also strengthen as the flow aloft begins to increase ahead of our next storm system. Models agree fairly well that an upper level trough diving south southeastward out of Canada will cross central and especially eastern NM Wednesday night through Thursday. However, the Canadian and ECMWF Models are less progressive with the system, forming a closed low over northeast or north central NM, and depicting precip lingering over the far eastern plains into Thursday night. There may be a few to several inches of snow accumulation in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with the greatest amounts reaching around 8-10 inches along the CO border. Elsewhere across the northeast highlands and plains, and also in the northwest mountains, up to 4 inches of snow accumulation are expected. High temperatures on Thursday will fall around 10 to 30 degrees below Wednesday's readings, placing them around 7 to 30 degrees below normal. A back door front will also dive southward through the far eastern plains Wednesday night, producing gusts from 25 to 40 mph that will linger through much of Thursday. A weakening ridge of high pressure will then traverse the southwest US at the end of the week with warming temperatures and relatively light winds. A cold front that crosses Saturday night will leave cooler temperatures in its wake on Sunday. Winds may begin to strengthen again Monday as an upper level trough deepens over the Great Basin, but models differ on the track and timing of the system. $$ && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions are expected to prevail across through at least 18Z Wednesday. Light to occasionally moderate breezes are forecast beneath a dry northwest flow aloft. KJ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 32 68 34 58 / 0 0 0 5 Dulce........................... 22 61 22 51 / 0 0 5 10 Cuba............................ 31 61 29 48 / 0 0 0 20 Gallup.......................... 25 67 25 56 / 0 0 0 5 El Morro........................ 28 64 26 54 / 0 0 0 10 Grants.......................... 24 67 27 57 / 0 0 0 10 Quemado......................... 31 66 32 56 / 0 0 0 10 Datil........................... 34 66 33 56 / 0 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 43 75 44 70 / 0 0 0 5 Chama........................... 21 55 21 42 / 0 0 10 30 Los Alamos...................... 38 62 36 44 / 0 0 5 40 Pecos........................... 35 62 30 40 / 0 0 5 40 Cerro/Questa.................... 27 59 25 39 / 0 0 30 60 Red River....................... 27 51 21 30 / 0 0 50 70 Angel Fire...................... 22 56 19 34 / 0 0 40 70 Taos............................ 24 60 27 42 / 0 0 20 60 Mora............................ 28 62 22 37 / 0 0 20 70 Espanola........................ 32 67 32 48 / 0 0 5 40 Santa Fe........................ 38 63 34 44 / 0 0 5 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 35 66 31 48 / 0 0 0 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 43 68 40 53 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 44 69 42 55 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 41 71 39 57 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 42 70 41 56 / 0 0 0 20 Los Lunas....................... 33 71 34 56 / 0 0 0 20 Rio Rancho...................... 42 69 41 56 / 0 0 0 20 Socorro......................... 40 75 40 59 / 0 0 0 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 39 62 34 45 / 0 0 0 20 Tijeras......................... 40 65 35 47 / 0 0 0 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 32 67 27 44 / 0 0 0 20 Clines Corners.................. 35 63 26 40 / 0 0 5 30 Gran Quivira.................... 37 67 33 47 / 0 0 0 20 Carrizozo....................... 40 71 39 53 / 0 0 0 10 Ruidoso......................... 41 66 30 42 / 0 0 0 20 Capulin......................... 31 62 25 32 / 0 0 70 80 Raton........................... 28 65 29 37 / 0 0 70 80 Springer........................ 27 68 27 38 / 0 0 50 70 Las Vegas....................... 35 64 24 38 / 0 0 20 60 Clayton......................... 42 64 29 39 / 0 0 50 70 Roy............................. 34 66 30 38 / 0 0 20 60 Conchas......................... 36 73 35 44 / 0 0 5 50 Santa Rosa...................... 40 74 35 44 / 0 0 5 30 Tucumcari....................... 43 71 37 45 / 0 0 5 40 Clovis.......................... 44 71 34 43 / 0 0 5 30 Portales........................ 41 74 38 47 / 0 0 5 20 Fort Sumner..................... 38 75 36 46 / 0 0 0 30 Roswell......................... 42 82 41 50 / 0 0 0 20 Picacho......................... 41 76 37 49 / 0 0 0 20 Elk............................. 41 74 37 49 / 0 0 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 31