920 FXUS63 KFSD 221801 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 101 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Potent upper-level low continue to impact the region with strong winds and light rain/drizzle. As of 07Z Tuesday, the storm system was centered over eastern MN/western WI, with our region under its backside and tight pressure gradients. This has resulted in strong northwest winds gusting up to 55 mph overnight. As this storm continues to move eastward, winds will gradually diminish; however, wind advisory conditions will continue through the day. Expect sustained winds from 20 to 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph through late this afternoon. Higher gusts are expected along and east of I-29. The wind advisory will remain in effect through 4PM. Winds will diminish to 10 mph or less around sunset as pressure gradients relax. Other than a windy day, dry air filters in today, giving way to a mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs from the upper 40s to mid 50s. However, gusty northwest winds will cause wind chill values in the 20s, especially during the morning. A tranquil night is expected through at least midnight before a quick shortwave moves through the area into Wednesday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 A clipper-system will slide south into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing rain and snow chances. Given it is a weak/fast- moving system, models are not in good agreement on the exact location or precipitation amounts. Thermal profiles suggest a mix of light snow and rain early Wednesday, mainly north of I-90. Then, with temperatures warming throughout the day, the remainder of precipitation will transition to rain. Latest model run suggest a modest area of mid-level frontogenesis north of I-90, that combined with weak instability and saturation in the dendritic zone, some periods of efficient snowfall is possible. Snowfall totals will remain on the light side from a dusting to half an inch, though could be around an inch across east central South Dakota, which is where better forcing will be. Cooler conditions are expected Wednesday night into Thursday as strong CAA takes place behind the departing shortwave. Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the week with high temperatures in the 40s. A gradual warm-up is expected towards the end of the week as a surface ridge build in. This pattern will also keep the region dry through the weekend. Temperatures will be slightly near to above average on Friday and Saturday with highs in the 50s and 60s. An upper-level low will swing across the International Border/Northern Plains, dropping its associated surface front across the region Saturday night. At the moment, confidence in impacts for our area is low; but it is progged to bring back cooler than normal temperatures into the upcoming week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Winds will be breezy through sunset, with northwesterly gusts in the 25 to 40 kt range. Winds quickly diminish after sunset. During the early morning hours Wednesday, rain and light snow showers develop as a weak weather system moves through. Locations north of I-90 could see light accumulating snow, with decreased visibility. Elsewhere, light rain and lower ceilings will be common through the morning hours. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for SDZ039-040- 054>056-061-062-066-067-071. MN...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ071-072-080- 081-089-090-097-098. IA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ001>003- 012>014-020>022-031-032. NE...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for NEZ014. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...VandenBoogart