024 
FXUS65 KFGZ 221617
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
915 AM MST Tue Oct 22 2019

...correction to Sunday Monday...

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to warm through Wednesday.
Another dry cold front will cool temperatures Thursday, with 
northwest to northeast surface winds Thursday and Friday. Expect 
warming temperatures and light winds this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows clear skies across Arizona
this morning. Expect light breezes and clear skies through today.  

On Thursday, northwest flow aloft over Arizona will allow a dry cold 
frontal passage from north to south during the morning. Expect some 
northerly breezes with gusts from 20 to 30 mph during the 
afternoon, and a few mid and high level clouds. 

Friday and Saturday (Days 4-5), the ridge off the Pacific Coast 
builds over northern Arizona to give us dry weather, light surface 
winds and warmer afternoon temperatures. 

Sunday and Monday (Days 6-7) Model agreement is poor for this time 
frame. Progs show a trough of low pressure and cold front moving 
southward through the Great Basin. The operational ECMWF brings the 
front into Arizona with very light QPF, and the NBM and our current 
forecast have a slight chance of showers for most of the area 
Monday. All other guidance shows the trough grazing the 4 Corners. 
Thus, will be looking at the need for Monday precip chances that are 
currently in the forecast. 

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions and 
generally light surface winds through the TAF period. Aviation 
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Fair, warm and dry conditions are expected Tuesday 
and Wednesday, with generally light northwest through northeast 
winds.

Thursday through Saturday...A dry cold front will bring stronger 
north winds and cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday. Very dry 
surface conditions will continue.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff