839 FXUS64 KJAN 220919 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 419 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019 .DISCUSSION... Today through Tonight: In the wake of yesterday's cold front passage, a cooler and much drier day is expected across the region. With a weak surface trough to our west overnight, lighter winds have allowed for a few patches of fog to develop and remain in parts of our area. Shortly after daybreak, expect mixing to resume and west-northwesterly winds to become breezy through the day. A few gusts up to around 25 mph may be possible. Tonight, the post-frontal surface high pressure is expected to be directly over our forecast area. Residual soil moisture following yesterday's rain may keep radiational cooling potential from being completely ideal, but drier air and light to calm winds beneath the surface high should allow for temperatures to radiate at least into the lower 40s for much of the area tonight. Typically cooler locations could even see low temperatures in the upper 30s tomorrow morning. /NF/ Wednesday through Monday: Continued dry Wednesday and Thursday before rain returns areawide early Friday morning. Wet weather looks to linger through Saturday but dry weather looks to return Sunday. Wednesday morning a >1020mb high will be centered over east Mississippi while our winds aloft will be near zonal. The surface high will shift east northeast and become centered over the mid Atlantic seaboard Thursday morning while our winds aloft back to the southwest ahead of a deepening trough over the Rockies. This will result in a warming trend into Thursday with a slow increase in moisture due to the resulting return flow. The Canadian and ECMWF remain similar in closing off a low near the Four Corners region while the GFS remains consistent with an open trough. Either way, rain chances look to return to our CWA after midnight Thursday night as the low pressure system approaches our region. The GFS remain progressive and ends the rain Saturday with cooler and drier air filtering into our CWA while model consensus is slower and maintains rain chances over our CWA into Sunday before a cold front moves through ending the rain chances. Model run qpf suggests widespread one to two inches across our area during the period but flash flooding is not a concern as the rain will be spread out through the period. Monday a dry reinforcing cold front is expected to drop through our CWA. As far as temperatures go, our normal lows run in the lower 50s. Thursday morning will be the coolest with lows in the 40s. Lows will generally be in the 50s each subsequent morning. Our normal highs run in the mid to upper 70s. Cooler than normal highs are expected each afternoon through the period. /22/ && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF discussion: While drier air is quickly working its way across the forecast area, a mix of BR and low stratus remains across portions of the region to start the period. A few of the TAF sites will continue to experience periods of MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities until the deck of stratus and BR can fully dissolve with arriving drier air. Therefore tried to be more pessimistic with the first few hours in the TAFs, and then have VFR prevailing at all sites by 12Z and through the remainder of the period. Some gusty winds may develop today. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 68 42 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 70 41 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 70 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 73 42 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 71 44 73 47 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 68 43 73 46 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 67 41 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/22