051 FXUS63 KFGF 220333 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1033 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1021 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 No change to the forecast. Windy conditions mostly playing out as expected thus far. Interesting stationary rain bands oriented north-south over the region driven by deformation and frontogenetical circulation within the H5-H7 layer. The fgen forcing is expected to lift away to the north through the early morning hours, although synoptic lift from the upper low's def zone remains in place to continue precip production. Low level dry air within Canada as noted on last sfc obs will advect into the region early this morning. Still thinking evaporation within this lower layer along with low level CAA will cause temp profile to support rain mixing with or changing to snow for locations within the Red River Valley and east. Given the expectation that mesoscale forcing moves away from the region and synoptic lift somewhat weakens over our area during this time frame, snow is forecast to be light with little accumulation. Higher elevation locations within west-central Minnesota hold best chance for seeing morning snow. UPDATE Issued at 741 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Windy conditions will continue through the evening with highest gusts thus far reaching into the 50-55 mph range within the southern Red River Valley and even in west-central MN with Park River AWOS continuing to gust to 54 mph. Hires guidance suggests this continues through the overnight as the low to the east continues to deepen over western Lake Superior. Thus have expanded Wind Advisory slightly further east into Minnesota. This strengthening low is also pivoting rain bands mainly over Minnesota. Some rain bands may enhance via H7 frontogenesis within west-central MN. Forcing eventually focuses further north into the Beltrami/LOW area towards the overnight where steadier rain should develop. Still holding onto the chance of some light rain mixing with or changing to snow on the western edge of the precip shield associated with this low during Tue morning from the northern Valley through Thief River Falls to near Detroit Lakes. Little to no accumulation expected with this. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Stacked low pressure system continues to bring wind and rain to the region. Northerly winds on the backside of the system will persist through the period. Peaking this afternoon into the evening with sustained values around 30mph and gusts to 55mph. Rainfall this evening and overnight will range from little to none across Devils Lake basin with another 0.10 to 0.20 of an inch in the valley to an inch across the Minnesota Lakes country. Precip on the western edge may mix with a few wet snow flakes as column cools on the backside of the precip shield. Tuesday winds will be less but still in the gusting to 40mph in the morning and then gradually begin to wind down. Wind advisory is in effect until 1pm Tuesday for the valley proper as a result. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Wednesday through Monday A trough extending out of the Hudson Bay area will continue to bring a chance of a wintry mix Wed morning before northwest flow aloft sets up over the Northern Plains by Wednesday evening. This will bring a cool end to the week, with daytime highs in the 30s and 40s before climbing into the 50s for the weekend. Longterm models do however begin to diverge with troughing over the plains by 12Z Thursday, as the ECMWF shows a closed upper low move into srn plains near the end of the week while GFS continues a much less amplified LWT. This decreases confidence for the weekend transition to low POPs Sun and Mon as ridging increases over the Canadian Rockies. At the time, no strong signal for precip during any given period in the long term, but some activity plausible in the Sat night to Mon timeframe. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 741 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Mainly MVFR CIGs likely to remain in place over all sites excluding KDVL. CIGs then have a good chance of reaching IFR criteria after 04 UTC for KTVF and KBJI, less confidence for KGFK and KFAR. Should IFR CIGs develop over the Red River Valley, ie KGFK and KFAR, they should lift to MVFR by 18 UTC, whereas other Minnesota sites may linger through the day Tuesday. Windy conditions will last through the overnight for all sites with strongest winds between 25-35 kt gusting more than 45 kt within the Red River Valley, ie KGFK and KFAR. Winds begin to gradually lessen after 15 UTC. Rain continues for KFAR, KTVF, and KBJI through at least 06 UTC becoming more scattered in nature for KFAR and KTVF first with KBJI seeing rain linger through 12 UTC. There is a chance some snow could mix with or change from rain between 12-15 UTC for KBJI. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 332 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Flooding continues on from record rainfall over the past 30 days. Sheyenne River basin has seen less rainfall over the past 24hours than previously forecast and depending on how much snowmelt with rainfall combined gets into Baldhill Dam reductions in the forecast will be possible over the next 24hours. With respect to the mainstem Red River the crest of the fall flood wave is approaching the northern valley with Drayton and Pembina seeing rises into moderate flood stages. Flooding has ended at Crookston. Rainfall this evening and overnight tonight will not impact area river with significant rises as the highest amounts will be east of the Red River basin. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for NDZ008-016-027>030-038- 039-049-052-053. MN...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ001>004-007-015- 022>024-027>032-040. && $$ UPDATE...CJ SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...Speicher AVIATION...CJ HYDROLOGY...JK