297 FXUS65 KPUB 201827 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1227 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1223 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Winter Weather Advisory for the central mountains and Lake County was allowed to expire at Noon as moderate to heavy snowfall has come to an end. However, light snow may persist in the advisory area through the afternoon, with limited additional accumulations. ~Line UPDATE Issued at 637 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Updated to add light snow showers to Teller County early this morning. This shower activity should dissipate over the next hour or so and accumulations will not amount to much. Did keep low pops over northern El Paso County, as one or two of these showers may eek out into the Black Forest area. The rest of the forecast looks on track for today as far as winds and red flag conditions go. Mozley && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 423 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 ...VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY... Currently...a very potent but quick moving upper disturbance will move across the area through tonight. Currently, broad southwesterly flow has spread across much of the state. Wind gusts in the lee of the Eastern Mountains have been elevated, with widespread 35 to 55 mph wind gusts along and west of I-25. This has allowed temperatures to remain mild across the area, with mid 50s up along the lee slopes, while mid to upper 40s are seen over the Plains. Snow is currently falling along the Continental Divide, from the La Garita Range, north into the Central Mountains. High mountain locations are quite windy, with Monarch Pass gusting to near 80 mph this morning. Today...the snow advisory for the Central Mountains looks good. While models have backed off on snow totals, the windy conditions will lead to low visibilities and hazardous driving conditions this morning. Extreme caution is advised with travel over Monarch Pass, and north of Buena Vista towards Leadville. Snow should diminish by this afternoon, with light snow showers continuing into the evening. Accumulations of an additional 1-3 inches are possible, mainly north of Cottonwood Pass. As the upper trough swings across the state, a very strong cold front will move across the region from the northwest. Humidity recoveries this morning have been poor, with some areas along the southern I-25 corridor red flagging already this morning. As the upper front moves across the area, VERY strong northwest winds will move across the Plains. Winds will increase, with gusts 50 to near 60 mph possible. Not anticipating widespread high wind criteria at this time, but a few locations may have occasional gusts at or just over high wind thresholds. In addition to the winds, very low humidity values, falling under 10 percent are expected across the region. Dry fuels, low humidity values and the very strong winds will lead to extreme fire weather conditions from mid morning into this evening. If a fire should start, it could easily grow out of control due to the extreme conditions. Outdoor burning of any kind should be avoided. The front will move across the region this morning, with the highest winds expected from 8 am through early afternoon. Given the dry conditions across the Plains, areas of blowing dust will be possible. Temperatures will remain pretty steady, with highs only climbing into the mid 50s to lower 60s across the lower elevations. Tonight...the upper trough will shift east into the Central Plains with broad northwesterly flow filling in behind the system. Winds will subside during the evening hours. Given the northwesterly flow, orographics will be favored over the Central Mountains, where light snow showers will continue into Monday morning. Any additional accumulations will be minor. Cold air advecting into the region and clearing skies will allow for temperatures to fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s across the region. Mozley .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 423 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Monday-Tuesday...Strong northwest flow aloft across the region on Monday, moderates through the day Tuesday, as secondary energy digging down the back side of a broad upper trough in place across the Rockies continues across the High Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. This will keep cool and breezy conditions in place on Monday, especially over and near the higher terrain. Moisture increasing ahead of the secondary energy, along with strong orographic flow, will keep scattered snow showers in place across the central mts through the day Monday, with snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches possible. Dry and warmer weather remains on tap for Tuesday, though will continue to see breezy conditions over the higher terrain. Wednesday-Friday...Another eastern Pacific system remains progged to translate through the moderate to strong northwest flow aloft across the Intermountain West through the Rockies Wednesday and Thursday. However, models continue to suffer run to run differences on timing and especially strength of said system. Latest GFS and ECMWF runs are indicating similar timing of a cold front backing across the eastern plains Wednesday afternoon and evening, though GFS is progressive with the upper trough digging across Rockies Wednesday night which then continues to translate east into the High Plains through the day Thursday. The latest ECMWF digs the system further west and develops a closed low across south central Colorado early Thursday, which then slowly translates south and east into central New Mexico through the day Thursday. While both solutions indicate cooler weather on Thursday, with rain and snow showers across the area, especially across the eastern mts and plains, the stronger and deeper implied upslope of the EC solution develops over an inch of liquid qpf across the eastern mts, where as the more progressive GFS solution indicates a quarter inch or less of qpf. With lots of details to still iron out, current grids have increasing chances of of rain and snow Wednesday night and Thursday, with best pops along and west of the I-25 Corridor. Highs on Thursday are some 15 to 25 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Drier and warmer weather remains on tap for Friday. Saturday-Sunday...Model differences continue into the weekend, as more energy digs across the Rockies. GFS remains more progressive with increasing chances of precipitation from west to east Saturday night and Sunday, where as the EC digs energy into the Great Basin, keeping best chances of precipitation north of the area. Time will tell. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1142 AM MDT Sun Oct 20 2019 VFR and dry conditions are expected at the three TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) over the next 24 hours. West to northwest winds gusting as high as 45 knots at the three TAF sites will continue through the afternoon, only weakening slightly later this afternoon. Winds will decrease to less than 15 knots this evening, before gusting again starting late tomorrow morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-224>237. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for COZ229-230-233. && $$ UPDATE...LINE SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...LINE