156 FXUS61 KCLE 200150 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 950 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Weak surface ridging will extend from high pressure over New England through the weekend. Low pressure will track out of the Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday, lifting a warm front north across the area. A cold front will follow early Tuesday morning as low pressure continues to slowly track northeast towards Hudson Bay through mid- week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be nudged eastward through the night as a weakening trough/cold front approaches from the western Great Lakes. Clouds have increased slightly faster than anticipated so nudged them up for the night. Warmer tonight with lows mostly in the 40's. Cant rule out a few sprinkles around sunrise but confidence is too low to even mention. So have removed this mention from the forecast. Warmer on Sunday with highs ranging from the mid 60's to around 70 degrees. Early highs closer to the lake with a lake breeze developing for the afternoon. Southerly winds will be on the increase Sunday night as stronger low pressure moves toward the western Great Lakes. Still no rain expected for Sunday night but the southerly winds will bring some low level moisture back into the region. So expect to see an increase in cloud cover through the night with lows holding in the mid 40's to lower 50's. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A pattern change will be occurring during the short term forecast period as an upper trough over the central CONUS will become closed and support an occluding low over the northern Plains. This low will extend a warm front north of the area on Monday and the forecast area is expected to get quite warm with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Rain will begin entering the forecast area late in the day on Monday as a cold front approaches from the west and a pre- frontal trough will generate precipitation in the warm sector. Not expecting much in the way of thunder but the timing of precipitation has been fairly consistent to go with categorical PoPs on Monday night into Tuesday. The front passes the forecast area on Tuesday and will be quick to dry from west to east. Enough synoptic moisture and cool air over the lake will allow for some residual lake effect over NE OH and NW PA and will keep a chance PoP for now. The occluding low will continue to deepen and meander over the northern lakes and will allow for strong west to southwest winds over the region into Wednesday. High pressure and dry air enter on Wednesday afternoon and dry conditions with calming winds are expected. Temperatures on Tuesday into Wednesday will be near seasonal averages behind the cold front. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure and some slight upper level ridging over the region will keep the forecast dry for Wednesday night through Friday. Neutral advection over the region should keep temperatures around normal. A sharp pattern change is expected to begin next weekend as a deep trough enters the central United States and draws some considerably cold air down from Canada. A front will set up somewhere near the region on Saturday and could bring a chance for rain before the cold shot enters for Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... VFR conditions are expected through the night. However there may be some lower end VFR ceilings that attempt to lower to around 5000 feet after 08Z. These would mainly be located across the west with a very low chance of seeing some sprinkles. Otherwise winds will become light from the south and southeast. A lake breeze may develop Sunday afternoon with northerly winds increase to around 8 knots at KCLE and KERI. .OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Non-VFR possible in lake-effect rain showers at/near KERI Tuesday evening into Wednesday. && .MARINE... Lake Erie will remain on the periphery of high pressure through Monday as a weakening low pressure system skirts up the East Coast. Winds will be light and variable through Sunday night when flow becomes more southeasterly over the area. A warm front will lift north of the lake on Monday increasing the southeasterly flow over the basin. Occluding low pressure over the northern Plains will extend a cold front over the area on Tuesday. Winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots on Monday night ahead of the front and then shift to the southwest. The occluding low will sit north of the lake on Tuesday night into Wednesday and southwest flow will strengthen over the lake. Winds and waves will be strong enough to merit at least a small craft advisory, but with the strong pressure gradient, cannot rule out the need for gales down the road. High pressure enters from the south on Wednesday afternoon and winds will begin relaxing over the basin. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KEC NEAR TERM...KEC/MM SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...MM MARINE...Sefcovic