579 FXUS65 KBOI 192122 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 322 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2019 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...The current storm system that has delivered severe thunderstorms and heavy mountain snow will exit the region overnight. Gusty synoptic winds will gradually diminish towards sunset though breezy conditions will continue through the night. The threat for convective wind gusts will cease as showers and thunderstorms diminish by early evening. Snow will continue across the e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho mountains overnight, though intensity and coverage will decrease as the upper level support shifts east. The heavist accumulation still looks to wrap up towards midnight tonight. Otherwise drier conditions set in for tonight. Sunday will see cloudy skies and another chance of precipitation as a warm front pushes into the region. Amounts will be lighter with this event with little measureable precipitation expected at lower elevations. Snow levels will slope from 4k feet across the w-central Idaho mountains to around 6k over southeast Oregon by Sunday afternoon. An upper ridge noses into the Pacific NW for Sunday night and Monday, pushing precipitation into e-central Oregon and the w-central and northern Boise mountains. High tempertures will run 10-15 degrees below normal through Monday. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Thursday...Unsettled northwest flow aloft continues through mid-week. A high pressure ridge centered off the California coast expands inland on Tuesday, warming temperatures to right around normal. On Wednesday, a trough from the Gulf of Alaska drops to the east of the region, lowering temperatures 3-5 degrees. Any chance of precipitation will be limited to the West Central Idaho Mountains, with snow levels dropping from 7000-8000 ft MSL on Tuesday to 4000-5000 ft on Thursday. Thursday night through Saturday night...Clear to partly cloudy skies with slightly breezy winds are the conditions expected across the region Thursday as drier zonal flow temporarily has control. Look for conditions to deteriorate across the extreme northeastern counties as moisture and instability associated with an upper level trough begins to move down and drive southward into the region. Snow is expected to dominate and persist across those areas with chances for rain in the lowest valleys. High temperatures are expected to reach normal levels with lows dropping down to around 7 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION...Mostly VFR with areas of MVFR/IFR in rain and snow showers and low ceilings. Widespread showers lingering through the evening causing mountain obscuration. Isolated thunderstorm activity through the afternoon. Patchy fog possible overnight. Snow levels: roughly 4500-5500 ft MSL. Surface winds: W/NW 20-30 kts with gusts up to 40 kts. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: W to NW 40-60kts. Sunday outlook...Conditions improving to VFR from the west late tonight with decreasing rain and snow showers. Local MVFR and mountain obscuration in scattered showers through Sunday, mainly north of the Snake Basin in ID. Surface winds: decreasing to 10-20 kts tonight and 10 kts Sunday. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: NW 30-40 kts. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening IDZ015-030. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening IDZ029. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MDT tonight IDZ011. OR...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ this evening ORZ061-063. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....AL/WH AVIATION.....AL