166 FXUS65 KFGZ 191126 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 426 AM MST Sat Oct 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Expect continued afternoon breezes and near normal temperatures today. Sunday will see northwesterly breezes across the area with temperatures falling about 10 to 15 degrees in northeastern Arizona. Dry conditions will continue into next week with warmer temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Another dry cold front is possible Thursday or Friday with cool temperatures returning to the area. && .DISCUSSION...An approaching shortwave trough from the northwest will give us breezy southwest to west winds today with near normal temperatures. An inactive cold front associated with the shortwave will pass through the region early Sunday, shifting winds to the northwest and cooling area temperatures from 0 to 5 degrees in Yavapai County to cooling more than 10 degrees in the Four Corners area. A warming trend begins as we go into the work week with a strong ridging pattern building off the west coast. Temperatures will warm 10 degrees across the area by Wednesday. This ridging to the west will keep our winds northwesterly through mid week. Beyond a few days, there is little agreement between the various model solutions and wide dispersion among the ensemble members; about the only point of agreement is the strong ridging off the west coast. Thus there is low confidence in the extended forecast at this time. That being said, based on run-to-run consistency in the GFS model, we expect another shortwave to brush the Four Corners area Thursday or Friday with the associated cold front shifting the winds to northerly and bringing cooler air into the area. We can expect temperatures to drop about 10 degrees again across northern Arizona with this system. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions under mostly clear skies for the 24 hour forecast period. Sfc winds w-sw5-15g20kts from 17Z-01Z. Higher speeds generally over higher terrain. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Much of the district will see slightly above normal temperatures and southwest breezes today. Winds turn northwest again on Sunday, with a few degrees of cooling. The boundary layer will remain very dry, with little to no cloud cover. Monday through Wednesday...After a cool day with light easterly winds on Monday, a warming trend develops Tuesday and Wednesday. Very dry conditions will continue. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...DB AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff