416 
FXUS63 KDMX 190830
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
330 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Friday/
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Nighttime satellite imagery shows cloud cover increasing across Iowa 
early this morning as a leading shortwave swings across the northern 
plains and into Minnesota. The associated cold front sits across 
far northwest Iowa into eastern Nebraska, with associated rain 
along the Missouri river in eastern Nebraska and into southwest 
Iowa. This will continue to move across Iowa through the morning 
before clearing eastern Iowa by early afternoon. CAMs have 
indicated a slightly slower propagation of the front and so have 
trended rain chances to match this. Still expect to see clearing 
for the afternoon, with temperatures able to recover into the low 
60s for much of the area. With northwest Iowa clearing out 
earlier, expect to see afternoon highs there warm a few degrees 
more than areas in southwest Iowa with will have lingering cloud 
cover to overcome.

With plenty of moisture and clearing skies tonight allowing 
temperatures to drop off, expect areas of patchy fog to develop 
over portions of southeast Iowa during the early morning hours of
Sunday. This should diminish shortly after sunrise Sunday, with 
generally quiet conditions through much of the day. This will not 
last as a rather vigorous shortwave crossing the Rockies undergoes
lee cyclogenesis, deepening as it approaches the area Sunday 
evening. With sufficient forcing and some instability, expect to 
hear a few rumbles of thunder Sunday night. As this system starts 
to lift Monday breezy northwest winds will filter cooler air 
across the state. Lingering wrap around rain across northern Iowa
will lift out of the area Monday night, with continued gusty 
winds throughout the day on Tuesday. Increased winds throughout 
the entire Monday-Tuesday time frame but suspect that this may 
need to be increased further with model soundings indicating the
potential for gusts in the 35-40kts range to mix down from aloft.

A quick shortwave will scoot across norther Iowa Wednesday morning 
bringing a brief chance for rain before clearing out for the day. 
Models diverge from there with the GFS favoring a dry forecast while 
the Euro indicates the possibility for additional precipitation 
Thursday and Friday. Both models indicate cooler temperatures with 
highs by the end of the week in the upper 40s to low 50s and 
overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. Should the Euro pan out, we 
could see a brief rain/snow mix for the end of the week, however 
this would melt on contact and confidence is low given varying model 
solutions at this time.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night/
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

LLWS will persist for several hours early this morning until the
front nears. Shortly after this the attention will turn to 
showers along and just ahead of the front as moisture increases 
and ceilings and visibilities lower to IFR or MVFR into midday.
Timing has slowed a bit since 00z, and some thunder is possible
south, but potential not great enough to mention until confidence
increases at any particular site. Confidence is high that 
clearing and VFR conditions will return west to east by late afternoon
however. Winds behind this front/trough will be relatively weak,
switching from west to south by evening.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Small