333 FXUS61 KRLX 170234 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1034 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Gusty northwest flow gives way to high pressure building in through the end of the work week. Surface low passes southeast over the weekend. Next cold front arrives early next work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1035 PM Wednesday... Forecast on track. Had several reports of a few flakes of snow in and near the mountains. As of 755 PM Wednesday... Forecast on track. As of 145 PM Wednesday... A strong cold front that brought between half to just over one inch of rainfall to the region has nearly cleared the forecast area to the east with an ample stratocumulus field left in its wake. A second reinforcing shot of cold air arrives tonight with some additional light upslope precipitation in the mountains through early Thursday. Given shallow nature of this cold air mass and dry air above, do not expect much potential for ice nucleation so would be more likely to fall as liquid. Temperatures about 3500 feet are generally expected in the 30 to 34 degree range so have gone with a mostly drizzle/snow mix with a slight chance of freezing drizzle. For other locations near mountains but below 3500 feet, precipitation remains either very light rain or drizzle. Cold air advection will keep winds up overnight limiting potential for fog and/or frost, and given minimal areal coverage of freezing temps, primarily confined to ridgetops above 3500 feet, will forgo any frost/freeze highlights at this time. Have continued with a Wind Advisory for the ridgetops of Pocahontas and Randolph County as H850 winds increase to 40 to 45 mph through the overnight. High pressure builds in through the day Thursday with winds gradually decreasing through the day and skies slowly clearing through the early evening. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 212 PM Wednesday... Sfc high pressure is prog to move overhead Thursday night and Friday, resulting in pretty quiet wx conditions. High then shifts east by Saturday with warmer southerly flow kicking in at that time. Limited moisture in the atmospheric column should promote mainly clear skies with both sky and temperature conditions being ideal for any outdoor activities planned on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 212 PM Wednesday... Forecast for the extended period is strongly contingent on how far north, and how fast, a quasi-hybrid Gulf of Mx sfc low progresses over the weekend. This low should remain far enough south and east of the area to keep any significant impacts out of our area of responsibility. However, how slow/fast the system pulls to the NE across the SE CONUS will impact the timing of our next cold front. FROPA currently is expected to occur early next work week. Deep flow of moisture ahead of the system should lead to a potentially significant rainmaker next week. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 755 PM Wednesday... MVFR stratocu will be predominant most of the period, lifting to VFR at times, mainly early on tonight, and then again Thursday afternoon. A reinforcing shot of cold air will tend to keep ceilings MVFR overnight into Thursday morning, when mountain sites could lower to IFR ceilings, and will have very light rain or drizzle at times, which could result in MVFR vsby. Surface flow will continue west to northwest, and be gusty but variable, beneath moderate to strong northwest flow aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds and timing of category changes will vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 10/17/19 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z FRIDAY... IFR valley fog possible Thursday night. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for WVZ523-524-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RH/TRM/JP NEAR TERM...TRM/JP SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...RH AVIATION...TRM