622 FXUS61 KAKQ 161750 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 150 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front crosses the local area late this afternoon through early this evening. Gusty winds are expected behind the front tonight into Thursday. High pressure builds in for the end of the week resulting in cool and dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 955 AM EDT Wednesday... Large area of RA moving through the FA now and additional RA is expected through the afternoon/early evening. A cold front will be crossing the FA late this afternoon/early evening. Much of the local area will remain stable though some slight instability will try to sneak N along the immediate coast (esp into far SE VA-NE NC) late to continue mention SLGT CHC T (for those locations). OTW...remaining cloudy w/ numerous SHRAs and locally MDT/HVY RA potentially. Highs in the 60s inland...l70s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 955 AM EDT Wednesday... After the cold front crosses the area...WNW winds will become gusty this evening/tonight as drier/cooler air begins to filter into the region. Wind gusts by late Thursday morning will be 25-35 mph and that will continue through much of the day before relaxing to 10-20 mph by late Thursday into early Friday. Low temps will drop to the low to mid 40s for most on Thursday and Friday with near 50 degrees close to the coast. Wouldn't be surprised to see some upper 30s across the far NW. High temps will be cool and pleasant reaching the low to mid 60s both days. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday... Sfc hi pres moves out off the coast Fri night through Sat resulting in dry/near seasonable wx. Return flow behind the high once its off the coast Sun through Mon will bring an increase in moisture (and PoPs) from the SW ahead of lo pres tracking through the Midwest - initially inland late Sun/Sun night...then all areas Mon. A cold front is expected to cross the region Tue w/ additional RA chcs. Lows Fri night 40-45F inland to the l50s at the (immediate) coast. Highs Sat in the u60s-l70s. Lows Sat night in the u40s inland to the l-m50s at the coast. Highs Sun in the l-m70s. Lows Sun night in the m-u50s...except l60s at the coast. Highs Mon from the l70s N to the u70s far SE. Highs Tue in the u60s NW to the u70s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 700 AM EDT Wednesday... Rain will overspread the region this morning with the heaviest rain expected late morning through the afternoon hours before tapering off this evening. Expect periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visbys, especially during times of moderate to heavy rain. There is a slight chance of thunder across the eastern portion of the forecast area today, but chances are too low to mention in the TAFS. All locations should return to VFR after 00Z tonight. Winds will be S/SW ahead of the front turning to the W/NW during the afternoon. Winds will become quite gusty behind the front, with gusts of 15-25kts and perhaps 30kts at KSBY. Strong gusts will continue through Thursday before diminishing overnight into Friday morning. VFR conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday. On Sunday a storm system originating in the Gulf is forecast to ride up the Carolina coast. Depending on the track of this system, some showers could affect the region which may result in periods of sub VFR conditions. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday... Sub-SCA conditions prevail early this morning with a SE wind around 10 kt on avg and seas of 2-3 ft, Bay waves 1-2 ft. Conditions will slowly worsen later today and then really deteriorate in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage this evening. Only real change to the forecast was to convert the Gale Watch for the coastal waters N of Cape Charles to a Gale Warning and to upgrade the northern Bay zone (Smith Pt to Windmill Pt) to a Gale Warning. These areas are expected to see a prolonged period of gusts to at least 35-40 kt this evening into early Thu AM (potentially 40-45kt coastal waters N of Parramore Island). Elsewhere, strong SCAs (due to winds) are expected starting this evening through Thu night. Do anticipate a brief period of higher gusts this evening w/ the frontal passage (about 2 hrs worth of occasional gusts to 35-40 kt). May need to issue a short fused SMW to cover this but felt that a Gale Warning would be too long for short term event. Seas will build to 5-7 ft N and 4-6 ft S, while waves in the Bay build to 3-5 ft, and 2-3 ft waves in the rivers. The current forecast has winds remaining aoa SCA thresholds for Bay and coast through ~12z Fri. Sub-SCA conditions return by late Fri, as high pressure settles over the waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday... Gusty S-SSE winds (to ~30 kt) have allowed tidal anomalies to rise to 1.5-1.8 ft in the upper Ches Bay. This will likely be enough for water levels in Dorchester County to crest just under 4 ft MLLW. Therefore, went ahead and upgraded the advisory to a Coastal Flood Warning. In addition, issued a Coastal Flood Statement for sound side portions of NE NC (based on spotter reports of nuisance flooding). Water levels in locations along the Albemarle Sound most likely remain slightly below minor flood thresholds. Previous Discussion: Seeing some slowly increasing tidal anomalies into the Bay and will let current coastal flood statement continue over Dorchester Co MD for the next few hrs. Will then likely be issuing another Coastal flood Statement and/or advisory across much of the upper Bay for the upcoming high tide cycle this aftn due to a continued increase in tidal departures as the SSE winds increase and with CBOFS forecast for a dominant flood tide through the aftn helping trap water into the Bay. Then, in the wake of the cold front tonight, strong WNW flow will lead to a strong ebb tide for ~24 hrs through Thu. This will lead to significant drops in water levels across the Bay. Does not appear to be enough to lead to Low Water Advisories given the initial elevated water levels. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ021. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ022- 023. NC...None. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ075- 077-078. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ631>634-656- 658. Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CMF NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...CMF MARINE...LKB/TMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ