937 FXUS61 KBGM 161055 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 655 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front with a deepening surface low will bring rain back to the area this afternoon and tonight. Showers will linger behind the front into Thursday as cold air streams into the area from Canada. Warmer and dry weather will return for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 405 AM Update... Strong warm air and moisture advection into the region this morning as a warm front that is currently draped across the Twin Tiers will surge northward and come through the entire area just after sunrise. Meanwhile, a cold front will enter Western NY later this morning and will continue to push eastward into Central NY by this evening. Showers and even some embedded thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon out ahead of the front, but before that it will be a decent day. As temperatures will warm into the 60s, although winds will be gusty. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly later this afternoon and into this evening, especially east of the I81 corridor. This will be due to explosive cyclogenesis of a coastal low, where a 12-18 millibar drop could occur within a short 6 hour window from this afternoon through this evening. How far west the heaviest rainfall will reach will depend on the exact track of this season's first nor'easter. The heaviest rainfall should occur in the eastern catskills, as strong SE low level flow pushes Atlantic moisture into the Catskills and orographic accent should enhance rainfall totals in these areas. Over 2" of rain will certainly be possible in some locations, but if the low takes a further east track then totals will be lower in our region, as the deformation zone would maybe just clip the eastern Catskills and instead have greater impacts across the mid to upper Hudson Valley. As mentioned in earlier discussions, the model consensus still indicates that this deformation band of rain will setup, and remain nearly stationary at near our eastern/northeastern zones tonight, but some models, such as the Euro with a further west track of the low, push the deformation zone all the way into Central NY with more widespread heavy rain further west as well. Latest forecast rainfall from 8 AM today through 8 AM Thursday is now: 0.4 to 0.75 inch west of Auburn, Ithaca and Towanda. 1 to 1.5 inches along the I-81 corridor from Syracuse to Binghamton and Scranton. The highest totals of 2-3+ inches are forecast be from Rome to Oneonta, Delhi, Monticello and Honesdale. Strong wind gusts will also be a concern tonight across the higher terrain as the low bombs out. Gusts should remain below advisory criteria everywhere except our highest elevations in the Catskills and Poconos, however, this will not warrant an advisory due to it being localized to these areas. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 415 AM UPDATE... As the strong Nor'easter low stacks over New England, deep moisture will wrap around to keep producing showers especially in Central New York Thursday through Thursday night, as well as widespread clouds and gusty northwesterly winds along with chilly temperatures. This pattern will only gradually let go heading into Friday. Coolest daytime of the season so far is en route, with strong cold air advection on backside of the bombing out Nor'easter first thing Thursday. Gusty northwest flow with wrap around deep moisture, will keep showers persistent and especially north of the Twin Tiers where upslope enhancement will occur from the lake plain into the mountainous terrain further south. For Thursday through Thursday night, the topographic effects may yield another half to three quarters of an inch into higher elevation portions of Onondaga-Cayuga-Cortland-Madison-Southern Oneida-Northern Tompkins-Northwestern Chenango Counties. Showers will occur elsewhere in Central New York as well, but will not be as pervasive; more on the order of a tenth to quarter inch additional rainfall. Into Northeast Pennsylvania, up to a few tenths of an inch may occur in the highest terrain along the Wayne-Lackawanna-Susquehanna shared county borders, but most locations will only see scattered showers with less than a tenth of an inch. Highs Thursday will only be in the mid 40s to lower 50s; quite raw considering the clouds/showers and especially the brisk northwesterly winds. We are anticipating sustained 10-20 mph, with frequent gusts of 25-35 mph; some higher elevations could see peak gusts to 40 mph. Winds will only gradually diminish Thursday night, with lows of upper 30s to mid 40s. Clouds will be difficult to get rid of, but with the large low departing to the Canadian Maritime provinces, the moisture layer will get quite shallow. Thus while a few showers will linger into Friday morning especially for the upslope flow locations of Central New York, the trend will be for showers to end and drying to occur. The air will still be quite chilly under the clouds, with highs of upper 40s-mid 50s. Northwest gusts will continue to frequently reach 15-25 mph as well. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 415 AM Update... Our region will revert to ridging at the start of the weekend, and then southwest flow into early next week. This will result in mainly dry weather with warming temperatures. Before the warmth however, clouds diminish Friday night as high pressure starts to build into the area, resulting in radiational cooling. Widespread 30s are anticipated for lows, and a frost advisory is possible where the growing season is still active in the Finger Lakes of NY and the Wyoming Valley of NEPA. Models in good agreement for a sunny day of high pressure Saturday, followed by southwest return flow Sunday with perhaps some high thin clouds yet still dry. Temperatures will rise from mid 50s- near 60 for highs Saturday, to mainly lower-mid 60s Sunday. Operational GFS-ECMWF-Canadian models now also all keep the next rain chances out of the region through at least Sunday night if not longer. Rain chances start to increase Monday, but model consensus places main focus more towards Monday night-Tuesday, during which another amplified upper trough will try to start swinging our way. A distant Canadian low is then projected to send a cold front towards us Tuesday, but given the amplified nature of the pattern it would not be surprising to see the pace of this slow down in coming model runs. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Widespread MVFR ceilings and visibility expected by this afternoon with steady rain as a cold front comes into the area. A strong coastal low will likely produce heavy rain east of I81 as well this afternoon and tonight with possible IFR ceilings and visibility depending on the rainfall intensity. Low level wind shear is still likely this morning, but surface winds increase by mid morning with mixing and that should put an end to LLWS. Outlook... Thursday into Thursday night...Restrictions expected as low pressure system wraps rain showers across the region. Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...MPK