013 FXUS63 KILX 160214 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 914 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 A cold front will depart to the east this evening, bringing an end to the rain showers and isolated storms. The front will usher in another cold air mass, with low temperatures tonight in the upper 30s to low 40s. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to climb into the 50s in many areas, under cloudy skies, with brisk northwest winds gusting to 25 mph. && .UPDATE... Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Skies are mostly clear over most of the CWA this evening except for areas to the east and southeast. Thinking those will hang around little longer in those areas. However there are more clouds across IA that are moving toward the area tonight. Question is how far south and will it be scattered or broken when it gets here...and when. Lots of uncertainty at this point but think some of the clouds will advect into the area overnight. So have made some adjustments to sky cover for overnight. Front is finally through CMI, DNV, MTO and will be getting into southeast IL, south of I-70 next hour. Think remainder of forecast is fine. Update will be out shorlty. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 The cold front is making steady progress across Illinois, and is on track to depart to the east of our counties by 03z/10pm. 0-6km wind shear values are climbing to 50-60 mph ahead of the front, with MLCAPE values only around 50-200 J/kg. Better instability will reside farther south along the cold front in Missouri and southern Illinois. However, the steep mid-level lapse rates may be enough to support a few thunderstorm updrafts in central IL. Therefore, have continued with the mention of thunder until cold FROPA. While there will be a clearing line behind the cold front for a few hours, satellite images are showing a well defined area of low clouds that will pivot southward into Illinois by Wednesday morning. Lows tonight will be held a little warmer than they could drop to due to gusty W-NW winds all night. Lows will still be chilly, in the upper 30s to low 40s, and wind chills below freezing at times. Expansive clouds on Wednesday will couple with the cold air mass to limit high temps to the low to mid 50s. NW winds will remain gusty through the day on Wed. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 A weakening pressure gradient Wed evening will allow for a more complete decoupling of the boundary layer winds, setting the stage for an even colder night. Clearing skies will allow some areas to see some patchy frost, especially in traditional cold spots. Dry conditions will prevail in the extended forecast through Friday evening, under gradually warming conditions. The warming will be attributed in part to nearly zonal flow aloft, as well as prevailing southerly flow during that time. High temps will rebound upward each day after Wednesday, reaching the mid-upper 60s Friday and Saturday. Sunday could even see widespread 70s in central IL. The next chances of rain look to come with a weakening cold front later Friday night through Saturday evening. Limited moisture and weak forcing for precip should limit rainfall amounts to a quarter inch or less during that time. However, a more dynamic storm system is taking aim on the Midwest for early next week. A deep trough will progress from the central Plains on Sunday to northern Lake Superior by 12z/7am Tuesday. During that time, a strong cold front will push across Illinois, with a moisture tap off the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the system. That will increase precipitable water values into the 1.5" to 1.75" range. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible from Sunday night through Monday night, with a couple of inches of rainfall possible. Rain should taper off on Tuesday, as drier and colder air return to the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019 VFr conditions will prevail at all TAF sites to start with scattered mid clouds around 10-12kft moving across the area. Satellite loop shows a break in the clouds to the northwest and west but a large area of clouds around 4-5kft is advecting toward the area and will move over the sites this evening. Timed these clouds into PIA around 03z and then progressing to the east and southeast. Toward morning, cig heights will drop to around 1.5kft and then slow rise during the day to around 2-2.5kft toward the noon hour. Expecting clouds to continue through the day. Winds will be west-northwest tonight with FROPA occurring at 00z at DEC and 01z at CMI. Breezy conditions around 20kts expected this evening but then overnight should loose gusts. Gusts over 20kts expected again tomorrow during the day. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Auten SYNOPSIS...Shimon SHORT TERM...Shimon LONG TERM...Shimon AVIATION...Auten