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FXUS64 KBRO 141147 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
647 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Thick low-level clouds and patchy fog have developed 
across portions of South Texas this morning with localized MVFR 
to IFR conditions. Satellite imagery indicates this will persist
around MFE and possibly expanding through sunrise. By mid-morning,
southeast winds and daytime heating should mix conditions out to
VFR through the rest of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019/ 

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday): Much warmer and more humid 
conditions return today across Deep South Texas, as 500mb ridging 
broadens across the region and coastal troughing exits to the north. 
The surface pressure gradient will remain fairly weak, but a return 
of southeast winds will allow highs to warm well into the 90s for 
most inland locations, and possibly up to 100F in the Upper Rio 
Grande Valley. There is sufficient low-level moisture for a few 
showers this morning, but expect dry air to gradually mix down to 
below 700mb late this afternoon and especially into Tuesday, keeping 
rain chances low. The gradient strengthens a bit on Tuesday with 
afternoon temperatures reaching the mid 90s across the RGV to around 
100F in the Upper RGV and ranchlands. 

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): The passage of a cold
front through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on
Wednesday will usher in unsettled weather for the remainder of 
the forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will 
accompany the frontal passage Wednesday through Thursday, with
additional scattered convection persisting for the weekend as 
deep tropical moisture (precipitable water values near 2.5 inches)
moves into the BRO CWFA and enhances the seabreeze boundary.
Although the Wednesday frontal passage will bring temperatures to
more near normal levels, a quickly-redeveloping onshore flow in 
the wake of the front will cause temperatures to increase to above
normal levels once again. 

MARINE (Now through Tuesday): A weak pressure gradient will allow 
light winds and low seas to continue across the coastal waters 
through much of the day today. A few showers may move over the 
offshore waters this morning, but drier air will lower rain chances 
Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Southeast winds increase to 10 to 15 
knots on Tuesday with seas ranging from 2 to 4 feet.

Tuesday Night through Sunday: Despite the passage of a cold front
through the Lower Texas Coast on Wednesday, favorable wind and sea
conditions are anticipated for the lower Texas coastal waters from
Tuesday night through Saturday, with neither Small Craft Exercise
Caution (SCEC) nor Small Craft Advisory (SCA) anticipated. More 
adverse marine conditions are expected Saturday night through 
Sunday courtesy of an intensifying pressure gradient, and SCEC/SCA
may be needed. 

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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