948 FXUS64 KBMX 132258 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 558 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 1256 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019/ Similar to what we observed yesterday, more widespread rainfall has developed than what guidance was indicating due to stronger isentropic lift and a more potent upper level shortwave. On our 12z KBMX sounding this morning, a 50kt jet was recorded at 500mb with over 100kts in the upper levels. That's certainly a distinct pattern change from what we've observed earlier this month. The rainfall will remain on the light side, since most of the rain is falling from mid-level cloud cover due to drier air present at the surface. Observations in Mississippi have only recorded a couple hundredths of an inch per hour at best. Still, it will be enough rain to cause impacts to outdoor events as we go through the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening hours. PoPs were increased earlier to likely across much of the area, with lower chances far to the south. As the shortwave quickly moves across Central Alabama overnight tonight, rainfall should diminish with time, but a few leftover showers will certainly be possible across our southern counties. Otherwise due to the widespread cloudcover, temperatures should remain in the 50s and 60s for most. If clouds are allowed to clear across our far northwest counties as is currently advertised, lows could drop into the 40s for locations such as Hamilton, Haleyville, and Double Springs. The long-term forecast remains on track this afternoon, with rainfall pushing southward during the day on Monday for most locations and warmer temperatures into the 70s. Significant rainfall amounts are still in the forecast starting Monday night through the day on Tuesday with good agreement amongst the global models of 1-3 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts. 56/GDG .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0356 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019/ Monday through Saturday. On the heels of a shortwave trough over the Carolinas on Monday morning, a transient ridge will be associated with subsidence and rain-free conditions across the northern half of the forecast area as 700-500 mb flow gains more of a northerly component. For the daylight ours on Monday, isolated showers cannot be ruled out in our southern counties in closer proximity to the stalled front near the Gulf Coast. An upstream shortwave will begin impacting the region Monday night into Tuesday morning as the front to our south is encouraged northward as a warm front. Rain should overspread the area from southwest to northeast after midnight Monday night with heavy rain and embedded thunder possible later on Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Models have introduced some uncertainty regarding the placement higher rainfall totals with the GFS and ECMWF showing a slight southward trend keeping the highest amounts south of I-20. However, many of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members more closely resemble the NAM, with the highest amounts along the I-20 corridor. Either way, we are still expecting 1 to 3 inches of rain for most locations through Wednesday morning. The passage of a strong cold front will be associated with drier conditions for Wednesday afternoon with cool mornings expected on Thursday and Friday. The return of southerly flow on Saturday ahead could mark the early stage of another rainy period as another large storm system begins to take shape to our west over the weekend. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. A large swath of light rain is slowly moving through Central AL this evening. This rain still extends westward into Central MS, so I've extended the -RA in the northern TAFs by a couple of hours. So far, site have remained VFR through the light rain, with only temporary drops due to 5sm VIS. Expect this trend to continue until rain tapers off west to east between roughly 04-06z, though this could be extended again. Once rain does taper off, ceilings could lower slightly, but recent guidance keeps locations just above MVFR, so I've kept VFR through tomorrow. Some guidance hints at lower VIS at various sites in the pre-dawn hours, but confidence remains too low to include at this time. During the day tomorrow, CIG should remain VFR through the afternoon and early evening hours. 25/Owen && .FIRE WEATHER... Widespread light rains are currently moving from west to east across Central Alabama. Rainfall amounts should be light, generally less than one tenth of an inch but will help to increase surface moisture a bit. Rain chances will shift to our southern counties for Monday. Rain should become widespread and potentially heavy for Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening as a more significant disturbance moves across the region. The Alabama Forestry Commission continues to have a fire alert in effect that includes all of Central Alabama. For more information about restrictions, visit their web site at forestry.alabama.gov. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 49 77 57 68 60 / 30 10 30 90 70 Anniston 53 78 60 69 62 / 50 10 40 90 80 Birmingham 54 78 62 70 63 / 50 10 50 100 70 Tuscaloosa 53 77 63 71 63 / 50 10 70 100 80 Calera 54 77 61 70 62 / 50 10 60 100 80 Auburn 59 77 63 72 66 / 40 30 70 90 90 Montgomery 60 79 66 75 67 / 40 30 70 90 90 Troy 61 80 66 77 67 / 30 30 70 90 90 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$